Bills have the blueprint to expose a major Patriots’ weakness and must lean on one superstar to help pull out the victory
It’s pretty easy once you look at the numbers. Unleash James Cook.
The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots are set to face off in Week 15 in a game filled with plenty of storylines. New England is desperately trying to take back the division that Buffalo has owned for the past several years. Meanwhile, the Bills are trying to stack wins at the most crucial point of the season and remind the NFL why they were considered top dogs before the year began.
Buffalo has the blueprint to take down the Patriots, and it’s as easy as letting running back James Cook cook. The talented running back has taken the league by storm in 2025, despite recent issues with fumbling the ball.
In the past three games, Cook has totaled 340 rushing yards and is averaging over five yards per carry.
Currently, Cook is only second in the NFL in rushing yards, trailing only Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. The Bills running back has been a dominant force in the offense and has the perfect opportunity in front of him to shine once again on Sunday.
The Patriots’ run defense has been struggling
As Pat Thorman of Establish the Run expressed on X, the Patriots have struggled mightily against the run since Week 11. In the first 10 weeks of the season, the Patriots had the fourth-best run defense in terms of EPA per play and was eight in success rate.
They were limiting running backs to only 3.6 yards per carry, which was the fourth best in the league, and were allowing an average of 79.2 rushing yards per game.
However, after the injury to defensive tackle Milton Williams, the team has struggled to stop the run. Williams was placed on injured reserve due to a high-ankle sprain and won’t be eligible to return until the Week 17 matchup against the New York Jets.
From Week 11 until now, the team ranks 23rd in EPA per play when going against the run and is 31st in the league in success rate. They are now allowing running backs to average 4.7 yards per carry with 123.7 rushing yards per game.
Cook was non-existent in the loss to the Patriots in Week 5
The Patriots did a good job shutting down Cook in the Week 5 matchup, holding him to just 49 yards on the ground while averaging 3.3 yards per carry on his 15 attempts.
It was the second-lowest rate for the season, but there’s hope now that things will be much different in the rematch on Sunday.
For Buffalo to be successful, it needs to get Cook involved early and often against a team that’s struggling to stop running backs the way that they did earlier in the season.
Data exposes wild difference
According to SumerSports, the Bills have averaged 5.34 yards per carry over the past four weeks, while the Patriots’ run defense has allowed an average of 4.78 yards per carry and a 34.6% first down conversion rate on rushing attempts. Cook is coming off a stretch where he’s averaged 4.94 yards per carry over four weeks, giving Buffalo a huge edge in the matchup. The Patriots are particularly vulnerable to runs up the middle and to the right side, where Buffalo has shown effectiveness.
The Patriots are allowing 5.22 yards per carry up the middle (nine attempts, 47 yards), 4.57 yards per carry on the left side (28 attempts, 128 yards), and allowing 4.95 yards per carry on the right side (39 attempts, 193 yards).
For comparison, the Bills are averaging 8.67 yards per carry up the middle (18 attempts, 156 yards), 4.78 yards per carry on the left side (51 attempts, 244 yards), and 4.98 yards per carry on the right side (54 attempts, 269 yards).
The film and that data tell the same story. This is a run-defense matchup Buffalo should exploit, and Cook is positioned to be the focal point of the game plan. If the Bills execute up front and trust one of their hottest offensive weapons, the advantage swings firmly in their favor.
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