Titans need things to get weird in the NFL this Christmas if they want to avoid the worst possible draft outcome
Titans fans need to embrace chaos for Christmas this year.
The Tennessee Titans were sitting comfortably in the first overall position for the 2026 NFL draft for much of the season. Then in Week 14 they won their second game of the year on the road in Cleveland, changing everything. It dropped them to third in the projected draft order behind the other two 2-win teams in the league, the Giants and Raiders. A bevy of 3-win teams sit right behind them, and the “risk” of winning a third time and falling to the bottom of that line of franchises looms large over the remaining month of the year.
This is the blessing and the curse of the Titans schedule this year from a draft positioning standpoint. If the first overall pick is your exclusive goal (which is arguably foolish since this current group of young players on the roster desperately need wins as part of their development), then the Titans historically-difficult schedule has been a big plus. Facing a playoff team nearly every week so far this season has led to a lot of losses! But it also means that their strength of schedule figure is the highest in the league, and positions them at the back of the line of whichever “wins club” they join, whether that ends up being 2, 3, or somehow more.
I did some Vegas math to peek at the “chalk” outcome for the rest of the season at the top of the draft order, and the picture it paints is crystal clear for Tennessee: they need to be praying for some classic December wackiness if they want the top pick again.
Projecting the 2026 NFL Draft order with four games left
There are fancy projection models out there that give odds to land the top pick, a top five pick, and so on. And those are useful. But let’s keep it simple to peek into the chalkiest outcome to the rest of the year. What if all the bottom-feeders win and lose the games they’re projected to? Where will the Titans end up then?
Using inpredictable’s market-derived team values, we can project the point spread for any matchup on a neutral field as things stand through Week 14. And then all you have to adjust for is homefield advantage, which I’ve (arguably generously) made a flat two points on the spread. The days of a full field goal advantage for the home team in the NFL are long gone.
Of course, team values will change each week down the final stretch month of the season. Nothing about this exercise is an exact science. What it does is give us a general screenshot of how many games each of these 2- and 3-win teams are expected to be favored in the rest of the year. So with the methodology all laid out, here’s what things look like for the eight teams at the bottom:
New York Giants: currently 2-11
- NYG -2.5 vs. WAS
- NYG vs. MIN -0.5
- NYG -0.5 @ LV
- NYG vs. DAL -3.5
Las Vegas Raiders: currently 2-11
- LV @ PHI -11
- LV @ HOU -12
- LV vs. NYG -0.5
- LV vs. KC -9.5
Tennessee Titans: currently 2-11
- TEN @ SF -12.5
- TEN vs. KC -11
- TEN -1 vs. NO
- TEN @ JAX -11.5
Cleveland Browns: currently 3-10
- CLE @ CHI -7.5
- CLE vs. BUF -8.5
- CLE vs. PIT -5
- CLE @ CIN -7
New Orleans Saints: currently 3-10
- NO vs. CAR -2.5
- NO -4 vs. NYJ
- NO @ TEN -1
- NO @ ATL -4.5
Washington Commanders: currently 3-10
- WAS @ NYG -2.5
- WAS vs. PHI -6
- WAS vs. DAL -3.5
- WAS @ PHI -8
New York Jets: currently 3-10
- NYJ @ JAX -12.5
- NYJ @ NO -4
- NYJ vs. NE -9
- NYJ @ BUF -15.5
Arizona Cardinals: currently 3-10
- ARI @ HOU -9.5
- ARI -2.5 vs. ATL
- ARI @ CIN -5.5
- ARI @ LAR -13.5
Unsurprisingly, the teams at the bottom have very few remaining games in which they’ll be favored! But these projected lines tell a couple of interesting stories. Such as the fact that the Raiders are clear favorites for the top pick in the draft, and really, they have been for about a month now. The eye test is pretty clear on this front: they’re the worst team in the NFL. And their remaining schedule is brutal. They’re likely to be double-digit underdogs in each of their remaining games besides against the Giants in Week 17. If you want them to lose that top pick, you need them to win in Week 17. It’s likely their only chance.
So if all of these teams win the games in which they’re favored and lose the games they aren’t, what will the draft order look like? Here it is:
- Raiders 2-15
- Browns 3-14
- Commanders 3-14
- Jets 3-14
- Titans 3-14
- Saints 4-13
- Giants 4-13
- Cardinals 4-13
This would be a brutal outcome for the Titans. It’s arguably the worst case scenario on paper. You aren’t bad enough to get anywhere near the QBs in this class to trade down. You aren’t even bad enough to get the best (or second best) blue-chip players in this class. And yet you didn’t finish the season on any kind of high note either, winning just one more game against a fellow bottom-feeder and matching the pathetic number of wins you managed last year.
The good news for the Titans here is that the chalk scenario almost certainly will not play out in this boring way. The beauty of the NFL in December is that chaos reigns. Disgusting matchups turn into barn burners, terrible teams pull unthinkable upsets. Just last season, the Titans only landed the top pick thanks to incredible outcomes from Giants backup QB Drew Lock and Patriots backup QB Joe Milton. Don’t ask me to explain how it happens; but I know that it does. And Tennessee needs it.
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