Baker Mayfield is shouldering the blame for the current position the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in and things aren’t going to get any easier for him this week against the Carolina Panthers.

Once a midseason MVP candidate, Mayfield has really struggled over the last couple of months. One of his worst moments came against the Atlanta Falcons when he missed an open Emeka Egbuka on a throw that would’ve iced the game for the Bucs. He hasn’t been able to get out of his funk, either, and it’s held the offense back.

Now, he has to take on a Panthers squad that consistently deploys his kryptonite on a weekly basis and there’s no doubt defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero is going to throw as much as possible at Mayfield once the game kicks off on Sunday.

Panthers’ usage of single-high shells isn’t good for Mayfield

Evan: The Panthers run a lot of single-high coverage shells with Cover 3 being the primary coverage. Mayfield’s efficiency and production drops dramatically when facing single-high shells, especially when opposing defenses run man coverage.

Evero doesn’t utilize a lot of man coverage, but that’s the key with Cover 1 and Cover 3 – a lot of times it looks the same due to the fact the corners bail to the deep third when required. Meaning, it can look like they’re running with their assignment when really they’re defending a zone. In totality, Evero can mix things up in order to confuse/fool Mayfield.

The disparity in Mayfield’s numbers is pretty wild to see. The Panthers defense is by no means a powerhouse, but Evero is one of the best defensive minds in the NFL and will definitely have a plan dialed up for the Bucs’ star quarterback.

Kole: The Panthers have done a great job with the disguises out of a single-high using Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson on the outside with Nick Scott as the deep safety. This puts a lot of pressure on Horn and Jackson on the outside, but also sets up a lot of opportunities to make a play on the ball.

The real Swiss-army knife has been Tre’von Moehrig. Even after missing a game due to suspension, Moehrig still ranks third on the team in total defensive snaps and rarely comes off the field while being deployed in various different positions. Moehrig is at his best playing closer to the line of scrimmage but he can really do anything defensively. He’s certainly a player to ID on every play.

Mayfield’s best bet attacking this defense is targeting the two linebackers in coverage over the middle of the field. Although if he’s feeling dicey, he can test either cornerback on the outside to see if they give up a big play considering both Horn and Jackson are allowing 13+ yards per reception this season.

Mike Evans and a healthy receiving corps can really help Mayfield

Evan: A big reason why Mayfield has struggled against single-high shells is because the Bucs simply haven’t had the horses to beat teams in this vacuum.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr. have been out for most of the year and those two guys are easily the most physical receivers on the offense. Why does that matter? They can beat man-to-man coverage and make big plays afterward, so that forces defenses to back off a bit. When they’re not on the field, it’s smaller-sized guys like Tez Johnson and Sterling Shepard – they aren’t equipped to handle physicality like Evans and Godwin Jr. are.

Well, that’s obviously no longer the case heading into this game against the Panthers. The Bucs receivers are all finally healthy and it should really create some matchup problems.

Kole: I certainly agree with that, especially when it comes to Evans. This guy dominates against the Panthers and the last time he faced Carolina, he had 97 yards and two touchdowns. That was without Horn in Week 17 of last season, however. Horn vs. Evans should be a fun matchup to watch in Week 16.

Within the battles on the outside, something to watch is the officiating in this one. Dave Canales noted how Shawn Smith and the officiating crew for Sunday’s game has a history of calling a lot of pass interferences. Against physical guys like Evans and Godwin, it’ll be a big thing to watch for.

But the Bucs offensive line has to hold up or else none of it will really matter

Evan: The Falcons defense had its way with the Bucs offense line, especially the interior. In fact, the entire interior of the offensive line is a major question mark moving forward.

Granted, it’s down both starting guards in Ben Bredeson and Cody Mauch, but Graham Barton’s regression in Year 2 has been really disappointing to watch. Hell, he was better at left tackle for the first three games than he’s been at center, since.

I fully expect the Panthers to run some twists/stunts, as well as find other ways to attack the interior of the Bucs offensive line. It doesn’t matter what skill players are on the field if Barton and Co. are getting pushed back into Mayfield’s lap, so the trio of Mike Jordan, Dan Feeney, and Barton need to be on point.

Kole: While the Panthers have struggled to hit home for the majority of the season (only 23 sacks entering Week 16) this matchup does shape out well for defensive tackle Derrick Brown to have another one of his dominating games.

Brown is tied for a team-high five sacks on the season with 24 pressures from the inside. Getting that strong interior push from Brown and A’Shawn Robinson will be key. As for the twists/stunts, rookie Nic Scourton is the player that’s starting to become a consistent disruptor for this defensive front.

Scourton has been playing with an unbelievable motor off the edge and the production is finally starting to stack together for him. Then, you add in some confusion with the twists and stunts, Scourton can really create some havoc in the backfield and force Mayfield out of the pocket, while having the relentless nature to chase a guy down if needed.

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