With how well Notre Dame has been recruiting in the 2027 class recently, there’s optimism that head coach Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish will close strong down the stretch. While the priority targets for the Irish staff are mostly well known, the recruiting world can be a fickle one. Things can change with the blink of an eye. 

Over the last several months, Freeman, offensive line coach Joe Rudolph, and Co. were viewed as the frontrunners for four-star 2027 St. Joseph (Ill.) Ogden offensive tackle Cameron Wagner. When the Illinois native announced that he was making his commitment on Monday, deciding between the Irish, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Illinois, many believed it was a no-brainer that he would end up in South Bend.

That includes me. 

During the last couple of hours since the announcement, I spent a considerable amount of time talking to multiple sources on the Notre Dame side about the situation. All the confidence has shifted toward Oregon, and there’s a big reason for that.

Why is Notre Dame “fading” with Wagner?

If Wagner had decided to commit a while ago, I do believe that the Irish staff could have taken his commitment. 

Unfortunately for Wagner, he wanted to take his recruitment slow, which allowed for the formula to change recently. The reason why Wagner won’t be committing to Notre Dame on Monday has everything to do with where things stand for the Irish offensive line recruiting. Things have changed.

Along with Wagner, Notre Dame has also been the betting favorite to land top-100 Middletown (Del.) Appoquinimink offensive tackle Layton von Brandt for some time now. That remains true. As of today, I would be quite surprised to see the 6-6.5, 280-pound athlete land elsewhere. 

The biggest reason for this late movement away from Wagner has a lot to do with five-star Jersey City (NJ) St. Peter’s Prep offensive tackle Oluwasemilore Olubobola. After visiting South Bend a couple of weeks ago, Notre Dame has made a massive move with the 6-6, 295-pound blindside protector. Ranked as the No. 15 overall player in the 2027 recruiting class by the 247 Sports Composite ranking, Olubobola just isn’t a player you say no to. 

The Irish staff also intends to continue pushing for another elite five-star offensive lineman in Albert Simien out of Lake Charles (La.) Sam Houston. While LSU is pushing hard for Simien, the Louisiana native is keeping his options open. His family didn’t watch much LSU football while he was growing up, allowing both Notre Dame and Texas A&M to get into the fold. Several people on the Irish side think they will have a good chance in the end. 

While Wagner is a good football player who the Irish staff liked, both Olubobola and von Brandt are of a different caliber of talent. If Notre Dame can land both, which is likely, they will look to land Simien to be the cherry on top. “Losing out” on Wagner isn’t so much a loss as it is a gain with some other elite targets on the board.

Cameron Wagner’s recruiting background

Wagner is considered to be a four-star player on each of the major recruiting platforms. On the 247 Sports Composite ranking, Wagner is rated as the No. 345 overall player, the No. 36 offensive tackle, and the No. 13 player from the state of Illinois in the 2027 recruiting class. Keeping talented players from the Chicagoland area has become increasingly important for Freeman and the Irish staff, but some higher upside options changed that formula.

It isn’t too much of a surprise that there has been a long list of impressive suitors who have pursued Wagner. The Illinois native holds offers from the Fighting Irish, Ohio State, Oregon, Ole Miss, Florida, Penn State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Florida State, Auburn, Nebraska, Iowa, UNC, Louisville, Indiana, Boston College, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Purdue, among others. 

At 6-6, 300 pounds, Wagner has an impressive blend of size and athleticism. With his requisite length and foot quickness, it should provide the Illinois standout an opportunity to stick at offensive tackle on the next level. Wagner also has the demeanor and power profile to play inside at guard. That versatility is something that Rudolph has valued tremendously in the past, which is a reason why they recruited him for so long.