Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford won his first MVP award for the 2025 season. Naturally, the football world isn’t expecting him to repeat all he did last year.

Stafford, who just signed a one-year, $55 million extension, threw a whopping 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. He’s only the third QB in history to throw for that many TDs and without eclipsing eight INTs.

Yardage and scoring is a safe bet to have happen again in 2026. It’s the turnovers that may go in a negative direction according to the numbers.

Pro Football Focus projects more interceptions from Matthew Stafford

Stafford may’ve only thrown eight INTs, but according to Pro Football Focus’ data, he threw at least 13 more passes that were considered “turnover-worthy.” Per Mark Chichester, Stafford’s season would’ve normally resulted in around 15 or 16 INTs.

Stafford generated 21 turnover-worthy throws in 2025, a total that would normally translate to just over 10 interceptions at league-average conversion rates. Only eight were intercepted, while defenders dropped nine additional would-be picks. He also threw just one interception on 695 non-turnover-worthy attempts, despite league-average outcomes projecting closer to five or six. Altogether, Stafford finished with only nine interceptions on a passing profile that league-average variance would typically push closer to the 15- or 16-interception range.

INTs can be a tricky stat, as luck is definitely involved with the result. Tipped balls, drops, and blatant miscommunication can all lead to the ball falling into the wrong hands.

Stafford has managed to overcome these factors more than most QBs, which is why this fear of regression may be for naught.

Stafford has overcome interception regression before

The numbers say Stafford is set to be unluckier in 2026, but history tells us luck has nothing to do with it.

PFF notes Stafford put together back-to-back historic seasons of “positive interception variance” from 2024-25.

At this point, Stafford’s relationship with positive interception variance has become a story of its own. His 2024 season ranks as the luckiest in the entire 10-year dataset (+7.3 net luck), while his 2025 season ranks third (+6.8). Producing two consecutive seasons at the extreme top of the interception-luck leaderboard is already highly unusual. A third straight year would be virtually unprecedented based on the historical data, which offers little evidence that this type of variance is sustainable. The numbers make the regression case difficult to ignore.

Stafford led the NFL in INTs during his first year with the Rams, throwing 17 in 2021. He averaged 18 during his first four full years in the league.

Outside of those years, Stafford’s been able to keep the ball out of harm’s way. He’s thrown exactly eight INTs in three of the last four years, and threw 11 in his second-ever Pro Bowl campaign in 2023.

The Rams don’t need Stafford to average about .5 INTs a game this year to be successful. They just pushed even more chips into the middle of the table with the Myles Garrett blockbuster trade. Their defense should be even more imposing even if Stafford turns it over a few more times this season.

Regression has chased Stafford for two years. It’s not out of the question he can outrun it still.