The Miami Dolphins enter the first year of the post-Chris Grier/Mike McDaniel era with a lot of new faces and a lot of unknowns. With a new general manager, head coach, coaching staff, and starting quarterback, among many other new faces across the roster, what the Dolphins will be in 2026 is anyone’s guess.

Well, maybe not anyone’s. The sportsbooks, oddsmakers, and statistical analysts see the Dolphins as being in for a rough season in 2026. The Dolphins’ over/under season win total set by the books is 4.5. So, growing pains are expected.

That includes ESPN’s outlook on Miami. They listed on Wednesday the Dolphins as having the best odds at the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft with a 20.1% chance and with a 66.3% chance at a top five pick. The New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals have the next best odds at the top pick at 17.1% and 15.3%, respectively.

ESPN gives the Dolphins the highest odds of landing the No. 1 pick of the 2027 NFL Draft

“For some teams, it’s a race to the bottom,” ESPN’s Seth Walder wrote. “And before the season begins, it’s the Dolphins who are “winning.” FPI has the Dolphins — who are starting fresh with a new head coach (Jeff Hafley), GM (Jon-Eric Sullivan) and quarterback (Malik Willis) — as the worst team in football, just barely edging out the Jets.

“But the Dolphins face the third-hardest schedule and the Jets face the sixth easiest. So Miami has a 20.1% chance to earn the No. 1 pick, while the Jets are at 17.1%. The Cardinals and Browns follow behind at 15.3% and 12.8%, respectively. Those four teams have the best shot to land Arch Manning, Dante Moore or one of the many other quarterback prospects expected to be in the 2027 draft.”

I have to wonder if the Browns’ odds were given before their blockbuster trade that sent Myles Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams on Monday. Cleveland’s outlook undoubtedly just took a strong turn for the worse with that particular move, even adding super talented EDGE Jared Verse.

That said, at this point, it’s hard to see how the Cardinals aren’t the odds on favorites to finish with the No. 1 pick despite all the changes in Miami. The Cardinals have six games against absolutely brutal NFC West competition and their QB situation is a hot mess with Jacoby Brissett in a QB dispute with the front office, and rookie Carson Beck currently set as the heir apparent. They have the toughest schedule in the NFL based on projected win totals.

The Dolphins get the Jets twice, and despite all their issues last year, they knocked off the Bills and came close against the Patriots last season at home. Miami feels closer to the rest of their division than the Cardinals do.

But at No. 1 or 2, or even 3, the Dolphins would still have a terrific opportunity to land a franchise-altering player, whether that would be a quarterback or potentially Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith. As such, even if they’re not the worst of the worst in 2026, the 2027 NFL Draft could provide an opportunity for a major turnaround.

That is, if the Dolphins don’t somehow surprise the oddsmakers and outperform the expectations this fall. Any given Sunday, and such.