The numbers prove Detroit Lions can’t afford to believe the biggest myth in football
Detroit Lions shouldn’t buy into one of football’s biggest myths. I tracked all 98 running backs drafted from 2020-2024, and the numbers make a compelling case for why Jahmyr Gibbs is worth every penny.
The Detroit Lions offense revolves around Jahmyr Gibbs, and if there’s one narrative Lions fans need to stop entertaining, it’s the idea that running backs are easily replaceable. The “don’t pay running backs” crowd has been loud since roughly 2014, when NFL passing efficiency exploded and analytics showed throwing the ball carried more value than rushing. Contract disasters reinforced the message. Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Le’Veon Bell, and David Johnson all got paid big money, and those deals aged horribly. Owners seemed to collectively say they’d never do it again.
But here’s the thing. The idea that elite running backs grow on trees just isn’t true anymore.
The numbers tell a clear story
| Year | Number of RBs selected | All-Pro/Pro Bowl | Starters for multiple seasons |
| 2020 | 19 | D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor | 4 |
| 2021 | 19 | Najee Harris | 6 |
| 2022 | 23 | James Cook, Kyren Williams | 7 |
| 2023 | 18 | Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, De’Von Achane | 3 |
| 2024 | 19 | Ray Davis (As a kick returner) | 1 |
I tracked every single running back drafted from the 2020 draft through the 2024 draft. There were 98 running backs selected across those five classes. Of those 98, only 21 became starters for multiple seasons. And that doesn’t mean all 21 are still starting. Guys like Cam Akers started for a couple of seasons before injuries derailed everything.
Of those 21 multi-year starters, only eight became Pro Bowlers or All-Pros. Gibbs is one of those eight. The others include Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, James Cook, Kyren Williams, Najee Harris, and DeAndre Swift. All of those guys are getting paid, and they should be. Gibbs is no different.
That’s an 8% hit rate on drafting an elite running back. You don’t gamble your offense on those odds.
Gibbs changes the way defenses play Detroit
You can make the case that some running backs are replaceable. Take Swift as an example. He was a pretty decent running back for the Lions, made a Pro Bowl, and did some good things. But Detroit realized it could live without him because he didn’t fundamentally change the offense. When Swift was on the field, teams weren’t afraid. He’s had solid seasons with the Eagles and now the Bears, but he doesn’t alter how a defense game-plans.
Gibbs absolutely does. When he’s on the field, the explosive run rate is higher. Pre-snap motion looks different. Play-action effectiveness changes. Linebackers defend differently. Two-high shells become more common. Check-down explosiveness is elite. Outside zone stretch concepts are more frequent. The Lions can win with Gibbs because he’s a complete back who runs between the tackles, gets downhill, and functions as another receiver with 500 to 600 yards per season in the passing game and huge yards-after-the-catch numbers.
You don’t let a guy like that walk based on a narrative that has aged out.
Recent drafts prove the point further
Look at the 2025 class. There were 19 running backs drafted, and only two became starters during their rookie seasons. Both were early picks. Some fans might point to a guy like Cam Skattebo, but those are highlight clips on social media. That’s not Skattebo playing like that consistently. He got hurt and missed most of his rookie season. I don’t expect him to be the Giants’ starter going forward, and I don’t think Giants fans do either.
This year’s draft class tells a similar story. Outside of Jeremiyah Love, the third pick in the draft who is expected to be the next Robinson or Gibbs, there’s no sure thing. Jonah Coleman, Nicholas Singleton, and Kaytron Allen could all be good players. I like them. But none of them are going to transcend the position the way Gibbs has.
The bottom line for Detroit
Teams around the league want to be like the Lions, and a huge part of that is because of what Gibbs brings to the offense. He changes everything when he’s on the field. You pay a guy like that — you make him one of the highest-paid running backs in football — because replacing him isn’t realistic. An 8% chance of finding the next Jahmyr Gibbs in the draft isn’t a bet worth taking.
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