Will 2027 five-star running back David Gabriel Georges commit to the Tennessee Vols or the Ohio State Buckeyes?

That’s the question everyone in both fan bases is asking leading up to Gabriel Georges’ planned commitment on July 22.

The majority of On3’s national recruiting analysts have predicted that Ohio State will ultimately be the pick for Gabriel Georges, who has reportedly already made his decision.

There’s a big reason, however, why Ohio State doesn’t really make sense for the five-star running back.

Ohio State can’t guarantee that David Gabriel Georges will be the featured running back as a true freshman

Gabriel Georges’ plan in college is clear: Dominate for three seasons and then go to the NFL.

It’s fair to assume that Gabriel Georges, even though he doesn’t want to receive every carry of the game, sees himself rushing for over 1,000 yards as a true freshman.

“He’s an instant impact type player,” said VolQuest’s Austin Price last December of Gabriel Georges. “He really is. And I will say this — he’s big on having someone to help share the load. He does not want to be a guy who carries it 30 times. He wants to be a guy who carries it 18 times and makes the 18 (carries) count. So, I think he wants other backs around him. He definitely wants to be the guy, he just wants to be the guy in moderation.

“If you get into the right kind of game, sure he’s gonna carry it 30 times and he isn’t going to complain. But I think he wants help around him. He doesn’t want it to be him every game, all game. And that’s kind of been Tennessee’s thought process. Except for the Dylan Sampson year, they’ve done a nice job of balancing and sharing carries.”

Tennessee can guarantee Gabriel Georges that role as a true freshman in 2027 while Ohio State can’t.

That’s because the Buckeyes have running back Bo Jackson on the roster, who rushed for 1,090 yards as a true freshman last season. Jackson, who had a bit of an NIL standoff with Ohio State this offseason (the Buckeyes aren’t keen on giving a running back big bucks), will be a junior in 2027. There’s no way he’s going to be on board with taking a back seat to Gabriel Georges.

Jackson also probably wouldn’t take too kindly to being paid less than Gabriel Georges. It’s believed that Gabriel Georges will receive a multi-year NIL deal worth nearly $2 million annually.

It’s unclear how much Jackson is currently making at Ohio State, but it seems unlikely that Ohio State would commit nearly $4 million (or more) to two running backs in 2027. And I doubt the Buckeyes would tell Jackson to hit the road in favor of Gabriel Georges (especially if Jackson has a great season in 2026).

“If I’m the starting running back as a true freshman, and I showed a hell of a ceiling and a hell of a trajectory to being a great player at Ohio State, and all of a sudden I find out you’re offering some high school recruit at my position double my what I’m making?” said former Ohio State assistant turned podcaster Zach Smith this week while discussing Jackson and Gabriel Georges. “That’s where I can’t imagine the kid (Gabriel Georges) says no to Tennessee. Ohio State didn’t pay $2 million for Jeremiah (Smith). They don’t pay high school recruits that much money.”

Gabriel Georges’ camp has maintained that the decision won’t be based on money (but $2 million is $2 million at the end of the day). But even if you take the money out of the equation, the opportunity as a true freshman is better at Tennessee than it is at Ohio State.

And sure, Ohio State fans may say that there’s no guarantee Jackson will still be in Columbus in 2027. Or maybe they’ll say that Ryan Day will give Gabriel Georges the carries over Jackson.

But neither of those statements make sense. Gabriel Georges can’t make a decision based on what may happen with Jackson down the road. And there’s no chance that Day would force his stud junior running back to take a back seat to a true freshman (that’s how you lose a locker room).

Ultimately, only Gabriel Georges knows which school is truly the best fit for him, but all the signs (more of which I discussed earlier this week) point to Tennessee making the most sense for the five-star running back.