The Detroit Lions’ Year 3 Trust Index uncovered a pattern fans have been missing
Detroit Lions have followed the same development pattern under Dan Campbell for years. The Year 3 Trust Index finally explains why some draft picks stick, and others disappear.
The Detroit Lions have built their roster on a simple philosophy under Dan Campbell: trust is earned over time. The Dan Campbell Trust Index, a multi-part study tracking how much responsibility Lions draft picks carry season by season, has reached its third and most revealing installment. After grading every player from the 2021, 2022, and 2023 draft classes through their third NFL seasons, the data confirms what many have suspected. Year 3 is when Lions players either cement themselves as foundational pieces or fall off the map entirely.
| Category | What it means |
|---|---|
| Rookie Trust | The player’s final trust score from his rookie season using the original Dan Campbell Trust Index. |
| Year 2 Trust (0–100) | Measures how much trust Dan Campbell and his coaching staff placed in that player during his second NFL season based on his role, playing time and responsibilities. |
| Trust Change | Shows whether a player’s trust score increased or decreased from his rookie season to Year 2. |
| Year 2 Trust Metric | Points |
|---|---|
| Opened the season as a starter | 15 |
| Played at least 60% of offensive or defensive snaps | 20 |
| Played in high-leverage situations (third down, red zone, two-minute drill, etc.) | 15 |
| Role expanded during the season | 15 |
| Finished the season as an unquestioned starter or key contributor | 20 |
| Trusted with leadership or communication responsibilities | 15 |
| Maximum Year 2 Trust Score | 100 |
| Score | Trust Tier |
|---|---|
| 90–100 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| 75–89 | Trusted Contributor |
| 60–74 | Earned His Way |
| 40–59 | Development Track |
| Below 40 | Redshirt / Long-Term Project |
| Category | What it means |
|---|---|
| Rookie Trust | The player’s final trust score from his rookie season using the original Dan Campbell Trust Index. |
| Year 2 Trust (0–100) | Measures how much trust Dan Campbell and his coaching staff placed in that player during his second NFL season based on his role, playing time and responsibilities. |
| Trust Change | Shows whether a player’s trust score increased or decreased from his rookie season to Year 2. |
| Year 2 Trust Metric | Points |
|---|---|
| Opened the season as a starter | 15 |
| Played at least 60% of offensive or defensive snaps | 20 |
| Played in high-leverage situations (third down, red zone, two-minute drill, etc.) | 15 |
| Role expanded during the season | 15 |
| Finished the season as an unquestioned starter or key contributor | 20 |
| Trusted with leadership or communication responsibilities | 15 |
| Maximum Year 2 Trust Score | 100 |
| Score | Trust Tier |
|---|---|
| 90–100 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| 75–89 | Trusted Contributor |
| 60–74 | Earned His Way |
| 40–59 | Development Track |
| Below 40 | Redshirt / Long-Term Project |
The methodology stayed consistent across all three parts. Each player received a trust score based on how much responsibility they held throughout their third season and whether that score climbed or declined from year 2. The results paint a clear picture of how Campbell and his coaching staff evaluate their roster.
2021
| Player | Rd | Pos | Year 2 Trust | Year 3 Initial | Year 3 Earned | Year 3 Total | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penei Sewell | 1 | OT | 100 | 50 | 50 | 100 | 0 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| Levi Onwuzurike | 2 | DL | N/A | 8 | 14 | 22 | N/A | Redshirt/Low Trust |
| Alim McNeill | 3 | DT | 93 | 45 | 44 | 89 | -4 | Trusted Contributor |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 3 | S | 24 | 8 | 42 | 50 | +26 | Development Track |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 4 | WR | 96 | 50 | 50 | 100 | +4 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| Derrick Barnes | 4 | LB | 44 | 42 | 44 | 86 | +42 | Trusted Contributor |
| Jermar Jefferson | 7 | RB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Redshirt/Low Trust |
Penei Sewell carried a perfect 100 trust score entering year 3. He had it from the jump. Amon-Ra St. Brown reached a full 100 by year 3 as well, solidifying himself as the centerpiece of the Lions’ offense.
The biggest story from that class is Derrick Barnes. He jumped from a 44 trust score in year 2 to an 86 in year 3. That 42-point leap is the perfect proof of concept for this entire study. His 2023 season is the one that got him paid. Before that, there were questions. After year 3, Barnes was the guy, and the Lions made sure he wasn’t going anywhere.
Ifeatu Melifonwu climbed 26 spots in year 3. You might remember how important he became during the back half of that 2023 season. His interception sealed the Lions’ first NFC North championship. The trust was there, which makes it surprising he’s no longer on the roster. Levi Onwuzurike’s trust score dropped, and Alim McNeil’s dipped as well, though McNeil’s decline had more to do with missing games than losing the coaching staff’s confidence. He only played 13 games that season.
2022
| Player | Rd | Pos | Year 2 Trust | Year 3 Initial | Year 3 Earned | Year 3 Total | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Hutchinson | 1 | EDGE | 100 | N/A | N/A | N/A | Injury | Not Graded |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | WR | 58 | 44 | 48 | 92 | +34 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| Josh Paschal | 2 | DL | 54 | 32 | 34 | 66 | +12 | Earned His Way |
| Kerby Joseph | 3 | S | 96 | 50 | 50 | 100 | +4 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| James Mitchell | 5 | TE | 26 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -18 | Redshirt/Low Trust |
| Malcolm Rodriguez | 6 | LB | 53 | 28 | 36 | 64 | +11 | Earned His Way |
| James Houston | 6 | EDGE | N/A | 14 | 4 | 18 | N/A | Redshirt/Low Trust |
| Chase Lucas | 7 | CB | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -20 | Redshirt/Low Trust |
Aidan Hutchinson couldn’t be graded for year 3 because of his injury. He only played a handful of weeks. But Jameson Williams told the whole story by himself. He went from a 58 in year 2 to a 92 in year 3. By 2024, Williams became a huge part of the Lions’ offense, and that number would likely sit at 100 if the study extended another season. Kerby Joseph hit a perfect 100 after an All-Pro year 3 campaign, the best of his career. Josh Paschal ticked up slightly but faces a likely plummet based on what we’ve seen since.
2023
| Player | Rd | Pos | Year 2 Trust | Year 3 Initial | Year 3 Earned | Year 3 Total | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1 | RB | 98 | 50 | 50 | 100 | +2 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| Jack Campbell | 1 | LB | 98 | 50 | 50 | 100 | +2 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| Sam LaPorta | 2 | TE | 98 | 50 | 47 | 97 | -1 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| Brian Branch | 2 | S | 99 | 50 | 49 | 99 | 0 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| Hendon Hooker | 3 | QB | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -18 | Redshirt/Low Trust |
| Brodric Martin | 3 | DT | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | Redshirt/Low Trust |
| Colby Sorsdal | 5 | OL | 20 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -8 | Redshirt/Low Trust |
| Antoine Green | 7 | WR | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A | Redshirt/Low Trust |
The 2023 class might be the most impressive group of all. Jahmyr Gibbs and Jack Campbell both earned perfect 100 trust scores in year 3. Campbell made first-team All-Pro. Gibbs did the same. Sam LaPorta only dropped one point, and that was due to injury. Before he went down, the trust was clearly there. Brian Branch landed at 99, with his torn Achilles at the end of the season likely costing him that final point. On the other end, Hendon Hooker dropped 18 points and didn’t make the team. Brodric Martin fell six points and was also gone.
What this means for the 2024 draft class
The pattern is consistent enough to use as a predictive tool. If year 3 is when Lions players prove themselves under Campbell, then the 2024 draft class enters the spotlight in 2026. Ennis Rakestraw, Sione Vaki, Giovanni Manu, and Christian Mahogany all have the opportunity to change the narrative around their draft class.
Rakestraw is the most fascinating case. People need to stop calling him a bust. Injuries have stunted his growth since he was a second-round pick, but there’s a reason he went as high as he did. If he can stay healthy, year 3 could be the proving ground.
The Trust Index has shown us that Campbell’s program rewards patience and development. The excuses are gone by year 3. Players have had multiple offseasons in the system, they’ve developed physically, and the coaching staff knows exactly what they have. Some become cornerstones. Others plateau. And some lose responsibilities as the roster improves around them. For the 2024 class, we’ll see which category each player falls into soon enough.
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