Detroit Lions Year 2 Trust Index: What Dan Campbell’s second-year decisions reveal about the 2025 rookie class
The Dan Campbell Trust Index is back for Year 2. Some Lions rookies took massive leaps in their second season. Others lost trust. Using four draft classes, here’s what Dan Campbell’s decisions tell us about which 2025 rookies could be next.
The Detroit Lions Year 2 Trust Index tells us something the rookie version couldn’t. Earning Dan Campbell’s trust as a first-year player is one thing. Keeping it is another. Some players take a massive leap in their second NFL season. Others level off. And some actually see their role shrink. We went back through every Lions draft class from 2021 through 2024, using the same grading system from last week’s Rookie Trust Index, and measured how much responsibility each player carried into his second season, how much more he earned throughout the year, and whether his overall trust score went up or down.
The results paint a clear picture of how this coaching staff develops talent. If you’re trying to figure out which members of the Lions’ 2025 rookie class are most likely to break out, this might be the best roadmap we’ve got.
| Category | What it means |
|---|---|
| Rookie Trust | The player’s final trust score from his rookie season using the original Dan Campbell Trust Index. |
| Year 2 Trust (0–100) | Measures how much trust Dan Campbell and his coaching staff placed in that player during his second NFL season based on his role, playing time and responsibilities. |
| Trust Change | Shows whether a player’s trust score increased or decreased from his rookie season to Year 2. |
| Year 2 Trust Metric | Points |
|---|---|
| Opened the season as a starter | 15 |
| Played at least 60% of offensive or defensive snaps | 20 |
| Played in high-leverage situations (third down, red zone, two-minute drill, etc.) | 15 |
| Role expanded during the season | 15 |
| Finished the season as an unquestioned starter or key contributor | 20 |
| Trusted with leadership or communication responsibilities | 15 |
| Maximum Year 2 Trust Score | 100 |
| Score | Trust Tier |
|---|---|
| 90–100 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| 75–89 | Trusted Contributor |
| 60–74 | Earned His Way |
| 40–59 | Development Track |
| Below 40 | Redshirt / Long-Term Project |
2021
2021
| Player | Rd | Pos | Rookie Trust | Year 2 Trust | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penei Sewell | 1 | OT | 97 | 100 | +3 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| Levi Onwuzurike | 2 | DT | 36 | N/A | Injury | Not Graded |
| Alim McNeill | 3 | DT | 60 | 93 | +33 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 3 | S | 22 | 24 | +2 | Redshirt/Low Trust |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 4 | WR | 65 | 96 | +31 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| Derrick Barnes | 4 | LB | 60 | 44 | -16 | Development Track |
| Jermar Jefferson | 7 | RB | 12 | 0 | -12 | Redshirt/Low Trust |
Penei Sewell finished his rookie season with a 97 Trust score and climbed to 100 in Year 2. He was already a foundation piece as a rookie, but that second season sealed it. The Lions were building around him completely, and he justified every bit of that faith.
Alim McNeill made a 33-point jump into a full-fledged starting role and proved himself as a foundational piece. He’s still in that spot now, coming off an injury in 2025. I happen to think he has a good chance of bouncing back.
Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown posted one of the biggest leaps in the study, going from a 65 Rookie Trust score to 96 in Year 2. You could see it coming because his rookie trust score jumped considerably in the second half of that first season. Getting to 96 confirmed what the coaching staff already believed.
Linebacker Derrick Barnes was the one who dipped a little in Year 2 after a solid rookie campaign. We’ll measure Year 3 in a separate piece, and I think you’ll see where everything really jumps up for him there.
2022
2022
| Player | Rd | Pos | Rookie Trust | Year 2 Initial | Year 2 Earned | Year 2 Total | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Hutchinson | 1 | EDGE | 100 | 50 | 50 | 100 | 0 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | WR | 12 | 10 | 48 | 58 | +46 | Development Track |
| Josh Paschal | 2 | DL | 24 | 24 | 30 | 54 | +30 | Development Track |
| Kerby Joseph | 3 | S | 58 | 47 | 49 | 96 | +38 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| James Mitchell | 5 | TE | 25 | 13 | 13 | 26 | +1 | Redshirt/Low Trust |
| Malcolm Rodriguez | 6 | LB | 83 | 30 | 23 | 53 | -30 | Development Track |
| James Houston | 6 | EDGE | 36 | N/A | N/A | N/A | Injury | Not Graded |
| Chase Lucas | 7 | CB | 18 | 12 | 8 | 20 | +2 | Redshirt/Low Trust |
No surprise with Aidan Hutchinson. He was a 100 in his rookie year and a 100 again in Year 2. We know who this guy is. Foundational piece, no doubt about it.
Jameson Williams went from a Rookie Trust score of 12 up 46 points because he started playing a lot more. You could see he was going to become a bigger part of this offense, and I think Year 3 will show that score keeps climbing.
Safety Kerby Joseph made a huge 38-point jump, going from 58 to 96 and becoming an immediate foundation piece in Year 2. Meanwhile, Malcolm Rodriguez dipped 30 points from 83 down to 53. The Lions got a lot better at linebacker over that offseason, and it squeezed his role. This might be the one spot where the trust score gets tricky, because I think Campbell really trusts Rodriguez. There just might not be a place to put him.
2023
2023
| Player | Rd | Pos | Rookie Trust | Year 2 Initial | Year 2 Earned | Year 2 Total | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1 | RB | 87 | 48 | 50 | 98 | +11 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| Jack Campbell | 1 | LB | 73 | 48 | 50 | 98 | +25 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| Sam LaPorta | 2 | TE | 100 | 50 | 48 | 98 | -2 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| Brian Branch | 2 | DB | 98 | 49 | 50 | 99 | +1 | Immediate Foundation Piece |
| Hendon Hooker | 3 | QB | 0 | 10 | 8 | 18 | +18 | Redshirt/Low Trust |
| Brodric Martin | 3 | DT | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -1 | Redshirt/Low Trust |
| Colby Sorsdal | 5 | OL | 42 | 10 | 10 | 20 | -22 | Redshirt/Low Trust |
| Antoine Green | 7 | WR | 11 | N/A | N/A | N/A | Injury | Not Graded |
Jahmyr Gibbs climbed from 87 to 98. Detroit wasn’t taking it easy with him anymore. Remember his rookie year when fantasy football players were hoping David Montgomery would get hurt so Gibbs could see more touches? Well, he helped those fantasy teams a lot in 2024.
Linebacker Jack Campbell flew from a 73 Rookie Trust to 98, a 25-point hike, and became the player everyone expected him to be. I would be shocked if Campbell doesn’t hit 100 when we measure Year 3.
Tight end Sam LaPorta dipped 2 points from 100 to 98. He didn’t have as strong a season as the year before, played a little less, and dealt with an injury late in the year. There’s a chance that number could drop even further.
2024
2024
| Player | Rd | Pos | Rookie Trust | Year 2 Initial | Year 2 Earned | Year 2 Total | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrion Arnold | 1 | CB | 90 | 32 | 28 | 60 | -30 | Earned His Way |
| Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | 2 | CB | 14 | N/A | N/A | N/A | Injury | Not Graded |
| Giovanni Manu | 4 | OT | 2 | 10 | 14 | 24 | +22 | Redshirt/Low Trust |
| Sione Vaki | 4 | RB/ST | 38 | 18 | 16 | 34 | -4 | Redshirt/Low Trust |
| Mekhi Wingo | 6 | DT | 24 | 8 | 8 | 16 | -8 | Redshirt/Low Trust |
| Christian Mahogany | 6 | G | 27 | 42 | 36 | 78 | +51 | Trusted Contributor |
Cornerback Terrion Arnold dipped 30 points from 90 to 60 in his second season. Injuries affected his play and everything around it in 2025, and when we do this study again next summer, that score is going to drop to zero.
The rest of that class largely didn’t work out. Offensive lineman Christian Mahogany made a 51-point jump, but that’s mostly by virtue of actually getting on the field after missing time. He’s marked as a trusted contributor right now, not a starter. Training camp this summer will tell us whether he can push that score back up.
We’ll be back later this week with the Year 3 Trust Index. For the 2025 rookies trying to earn their keep this fall, this data offers the clearest lens we have into how Campbell’s staff builds trust over time. Let’s see how it plays out.
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