The reason the Lions still haven’t signed Jahmyr Gibbs to his extension
Everyone keeps asking why the Detroit Lions haven’t paid Jahmyr Gibbs yet. The answer isn’t nearly as dramatic as people are making it out to be. One huge piece of context has been missing from this entire conversation.
The Detroit Lions are going to pay Jahmyr Gibbs. That much should be obvious to anyone who has watched how general manager Brad Holmes handles extensions. Yet the discourse around Gibbs’ contract situation has reached a fever pitch on social media, talk radio, and national media spots that feels completely overblown. Lions fans demanding the team “just pay him already” are ignoring one massive piece of context, and the national voices suggesting Detroit should trade him are even further off base.
You have to understand something about Holmes. He made Aidan Hutchinson the highest-paid edge rusher in the league. He made Kerby Joseph the highest-paid safety in the league. He paid Amon-Ra St. Brown as one of the highest-paid receivers. He made Jameson Williams one of the highest-paid receivers. He made Penei Sewell the highest-paid tackle. All Holmes has ever done with these extensions is make his players the highest-paid player at their position. He’s never cheaped out. Not once. I don’t know why anybody thinks he’s going to start now.
This was an unprecedented situation from the start
This was never a normal extension negotiation. It wasn’t as simple as Gibbs being the only running back up for a deal. Gibbs and Bijan Robinson were 1A and 1B, the two best players at a single position in the entire league, both looking for extensions at the same exact time. I’ve talked about this in multiple articles. This whole thing was a race, and whoever went first lost in a way because that deal would set the floor for the other.
Robinson went first. He got an unbelievable amount of money and became the highest-paid running back in NFL history. You can’t take that away from him. But the Lions are going to top it.
If you’re Gibbs’ agent, you’re telling Holmes that your client deserves to be the highest-paid running back no matter what. And you know what? I don’t think the agent is wrong. I don’t think the player is wrong if he thinks he’s the best running back in the league, because I think he is. I’ve always thought that. Gibbs’ camp likely had a base-level conversation with Detroit but needed to see what Robinson got before real negotiations could begin. That market just wasn’t set until a few days ago.
Even deeper than that, the Dolphins were looking to extend De’Von Achane, and that changed the market because before Robinson got paid, Achane became the guy with the highest total value. Then the Colts were looking to do a deal with Jonathan Taylor. There are just so many moving parts.
What Gibbs is going to want
If I had to guess, it’s pretty straightforward. Gibbs’ side is going to want more money in total value, more money in average annual value, and they’re going to want to beat the one spot where Robinson didn’t finish on top: total guaranteed money. Robinson got $51 million total guaranteed, but rookie Jeremiyah Love somehow landed $53 million fully guaranteed before ever touching an NFL field. I still don’t know how Love’s agent pulled that off, but the number is there, and Gibbs is going to want to top it. Highest total value, highest average annual value, highest total guaranteed money. The full sweep. The Lions can do that, and I’m sure they will.
Why it hasn’t happened yet
So then the question becomes: if Robinson got paid two days ago, why hasn’t it happened already? Because it’s not that simple. The Atlanta Falcons are in a much different cap situation than Detroit. Atlanta has Robinson, Drake London, and Tua Tagovailoa on a cheaper quarterback deal. They don’t have what the Lions have to contend with. Jared Goff is one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league. Detroit has one of the highest-paid edge rushers, one of the highest-paid linebackers. The Lions have a deep roster full of expensive players.
Detroit can absolutely make this contract happen, but they need to figure out how to structure it. That’s not something you do overnight. They’ve got to go to the drawing board and figure out how to pay Gibbs everything he wants while still being able to pay Sam LaPorta, pay Brian Branch, sign free agents, make trades, and handle future rookie classes. They need to timeline everything out for restructures down the road. It’s a complex puzzle, and just throwing a number at Gibbs without thinking through the structure would be irresponsible.
The “just trade him” crowd is wrong
I get it, I really do, but the idea that the Lions should trade Gibbs because “running backs are easy to find” drives me crazy. That narrative is flat-out false. Running backs are getting paid more and more. The NFL is trending toward teams that can run the ball effectively. When you have a very, very good running back, maybe the best one in the league, you hold on to him. You don’t let that guy walk.
The other argument, that the Lions should just let Gibbs play out his current deal and franchise tag him, is even worse. You’re telling a player you love him while simultaneously saying he’s not important enough to pay. The franchise tag is the No. 1 thing that angers players. That’s not how you build the culture Dan Campbell has established in Detroit.
The Lions are going to pay Jahmyr Gibbs. This is probably going to happen within the next couple of weeks. The only reason it’s taken this long is that there was a literal counterpart just as good as he is looking for a deal at the same time, and both teams were waiting to see who moved first. Now we know. The market is set. We’ll see what happens, but it’s coming soon.
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