Latest WR extension provides further evidence Minnesota Vikings need to lock up Jordan Addison long-term
It’s becoming more and more obvious that the Minnesota Vikings need to get Jordan Addison extended soon.
The Minnesota Vikings need to extend wide receiver Jordan Addison, and they need to do so quickly. On Tuesday, the Baltimore Ravens extended Zay Flowers to Justin Jefferson money: 4 years, $140 million with $108 million guaranteed.
That is $2 million less in total guarantees than what Jefferson got, and the same average annual value. Jefferson signed his extension 2 years ago, and the wide receiver market has shifted dramatically since then. Even so, it is a significant amount of money that Flowers has been given.
The question the Vikings should be asking themselves right now is simple: Are we sure Flowers is that much better than Addison? The longer Minnesota waits on an Addison extension, it becomes more and more difficult to figure out what he’s going to get paid.
The projection has likely changed
Earlier this offseason, I projected Addison’s deal at 3 years, $82.5 million with $34 million fully guaranteed, coming out to $27.5 million in average annual value. That contract would be structured in a Rob Brzezinski style, where the first year carries a low total number, the second year rises slightly, and then the big cap hits come at the back end. The reasoning behind that structure is simple: it allows the team to maneuver throughout the course of the contract, and if the player isn’t performing after the first 2 years, Minnesota can theoretically move on.
That projection feels like a moot point now. If Flowers is getting $35 million per year and Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson, who Addison is better than, is getting roughly 4 years, $110.5 million, you are looking at a significant jump in what Addison can demand.
The statistical comparison favors Addison more than you’d think
Flowers has been a two-time Pro Bowler, and while it’s a little easier to earn that distinction in the AFC given the wealth of wide receivers in the NFC, two Pro Bowls in three years is one heck of a start. His career numbers sit at 237 catches, 3,120 yards, and only 14 touchdowns. In comparison, Addison has posted 175 catches for 2,396 yards with a slightly higher yards per catch and 22 touchdowns. Factor in two rushing touchdowns apiece, and you’re looking at a 24-to-16 touchdown split.
Touchdowns are inherently random, but it is still somewhat noteworthy that Addison has so many more of them. One thing that makes the conversation around Addison simple is this: he has Justin Jefferson on the other side. That matters, especially wiht a statistical comparison. Jefferson is a significant upgrade over what Flowers has played with in Rashod Bateman, and Addison has done so much to unlock Jefferson by beating single coverage and threatening vertically, especially on those post routes.
Addison thrived on them at both Pitt and USC, and his first NFL touchdown was a 40-yard post route from Kirk Cousins in his rookie debut against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Having that vertical threat on the other side alleviates pressure from Jefferson, and in turn, Jefferson makes Addison’s life a little easier.
The price tag keeps climbing
Addison and his agent can look at the Flowers deal and present a straightforward argument: If Flowers is getting $35 million with 2 Pro Bowls, why shouldn’t Addison be in the $34 million range? Instead of negotiating in the high 20s, where discussions probably sat about 3 months ago, the Vikings are now likely talking in the low to mid-30s. That creates significant salary cap challenges when you’re already paying Jefferson elite money.
That is exactly what the Vikings have Brzezinski for: to figure out the cap math and make it work. There is also the element of general manager Nolan Teasley and what he wants to prioritize. He already got Brian O’Neill’s extension done, which made sense given O’Neill is still performing at a high level as a prime right tackle. Whether Teasley pushes to lock up Addison before the season remains to be seen.
The clock is ticking
Minnesota sits in a strong position from a talent perspective. Addison is a great player, and there is reason to believe he’s primed for an incredible year. With more consistency at quarterback (likely Kyler Murray), a hopefully healthy offensive line, and no 3-game suspension to start the season, the circumstances are far better than last year. His average over his first 2 seasons was 900 yards and 9.5 touchdowns per year. Last season, he managed roughly 600 yards and 3 touchdowns, a dip partly attributable to inconsistent quarterback play and some drops.
The more Addison plays and the more he shines, the higher that contract number climbs. It behooves the Vikings to get it done now. If Flowers is getting $35 million in average annual value, there is no reason Addison should be making less than $30 million. Every new comparable contract gives the wide receiver that much more leverage. The difficult challenge of waiting longer is that the market only moves in one direction.
