The Oklahoma State Cowboys were just outside the AP preseason top 25 rankings after receiving just eight votes, yet people might still need to pump the brakes on the hype Oklahoma State train going into this season.

Now I want to make things clear: I am a huge fan of Oklahoma State this year. Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins, Wyatt Young, this coaching staff. I think they’re going to put up a ton of points. But are they going to win a ton of football games? That’s a different question entirely, and I think people are overlooking how difficult the Big 12 schedule is going to be for the Cowboys in 2025.

The offense is not the problem that should concern Oklahoma State in 2026

This is not your normal Big 12 from the 2010’s where if you could score 40-plus points per game you’d find yourself at the top of the conference. You have to play the other side of the football now. And if I look at Oklahoma State’s defensive side, I think they’re going to be a little bit undersized. They’re going to let up a ton of points. Teams are going to be able to run the football on them, and that’s going to leave the offense on the sidelines more times than you’re going to feel comfortable with.

And here’s the thing: everybody knows Oklahoma State can put up points. So what’s the best way to stop them? Keep them off the field.

For those who need it: (almost) every pass completed by Drew Mestemaker in OSU's Spring Game pic.twitter.com/lOnlVN6JY2

— Holden Krusemark (@HoldenKrusemark) April 19, 2026

The schedule is the main point of concern for the Cowboys

I think the teams on this schedule that can manage the clock are going to be able to beat the Cowboys. That’s the formula, and there are a lot of teams in this conference capable of executing it. And that’s also making the assumption that Mestemaker’s translation from North Texas to Oklahoma State is going to be seamless, especially early in the year.

The Cowboys have some really difficult games right out of the gate. As much as I want to overlook a road trip to Tulsa, I’m not going to do that because I think Tulsa is going to be a really good Group of Six team this year.

Then you have Oregon at home. We know how good Oregon is. But then it’s West Virginia on the road, at Houston, at Kansas State, Texas Tech, Arizona State. Those last three all back to back to back in the late parts of the season. And four of those conference matchups are against four of the top contenders in the Big 12. That’s brutal.

I don’t mean to overlook the other teams on the schedule, but if I’m just looking at the heavy hitters where Oklahoma State is not going to be favored, that stretch alone should give you pause. A lot of people are saying the Cowboys could go win eight, nine, maybe even 10 games, and all I’m saying is pump the brakes a little bit.

2027 might be the real window for Oklahoma State

Let me again preface by saying that I a huge fan of this team. I love the offensive talent, and I think the coaching staff has a real vision for this program. But loving a roster and projecting double-digit wins are two very different things when the defense is undersized and the schedule reads like that.

It may just have to take another year for this program. Maybe 2027 is the year Oklahoma State can compete for a Big 12 title, because I don’t see it happening this season like other people out there seem to think right now.