The Texas Longhorns just gave everybody a reason to pay a lot more attention to their quarterback room on Monday. As reported earlier today, Longhorns backup quarterback K.J. Lacey Jr. is expected to see an uptick in first-team reps during practice this week ahead of the matchup with Ole Miss.

Now I want to be clear. Arch Manning is still expected to be the starting quarterback against the Rebels. Nobody is announcing a firm benching, yet. But the timing of this matters, because this game feels like the turning point of the entire season for Texas.

The playoff aspirations are on the line, and I’d argue Steve Sarkisian’s job security is on the line right alongside them.

This is not a normal quarterback change

And you may say, Tegan, teams change quarterbacks all the time. Why is this a big deal? Because this isn’t the usual setup. A lot of quarterback changes look like the old Clemson situation with Trevor Lawrence, where you have a talented young player sitting behind the starter and you eventually just have to give him his shot. That’s a natural progression. Everybody saw it coming.

This situation in Texas is not that. There is so much investment in Arch Manning, from the recruitment to the hype to the entire identity of this program, that the idea of benching him only becomes real when things get bad. Really bad. And the fact that Lacey is taking more first-team reps tells you we’ve reached that point.

It also makes this game incredibly hard to project. When you introduce a change at quarterback, you’re throwing out a lot of what you think you know about a team. Who knows? K.J. Lacey could be a significant upgrade. There is a world where he comes in, this offense starts moving the football, and the entire outlook of Texas football completely changes in one afternoon.

There’s also a world where Arch plays well enough to quiet all of this down. I’m not ruling that out. I’m just not going to pretend the conversation isn’t happening when the practice reps say otherwise.

Here’s where I land. It would not shock me, and it shouldn’t shock you either, if Lacey gets real playing time in this game. If the offense goes three-and-out early and Arch Manning looks like the same quarterback we’ve watched struggle in the past, I think the Longhorns go to Lacey. You don’t ramp up a backup’s first-team work in a week this big just to keep him warm.

And that is crazy to think about. Need I remind you of the expectations that came with that last name? People talked about Arch like this was finally the year he took the step, and I’m including myself in that group. I believed it.

Instead of taking steps forward, we’ve watched him actively regress. Seeing him pulled in a game of this magnitude would be absolutely insane.

Arch Manning isn’t the only one under the microscope in Austin

Say what you want about Steven Sarkisian, but he has tied a lot of his tenure to Arch Manning’s development. If he has to turn to the backup in a game this important, that’s an admission the plan hasn’t worked the way anyone in Austin hoped. That’s brutal for a coach who was supposed to be building toward championships.

Sarkisian is figuring out that he can’t live with the up-and-down swings of Manning. Not in the SEC. Not with this conference schedule. There’s only so much the defense can carry. If that unit has an off day, or loses its top player in Colin Simmons, the offense can’t afford to be a coin flip.

Think about living and dying by the 3-pointer with a 30 percent shooter. Some nights he plays above his standard. Other nights he goes 1-for-14. That volatility doesn’t produce consistent wins in conference play.

So here’s my take. I don’t think this uptick in reps is just a motivational tactic. I think it’s a warning shot, and I think there’s a real chance Lacey plays against Ole Miss. If he does and the offense looks better, this stops being a one-week story and becomes the start of a completely different season for the Longhorns. I’ll be watching closely to see if this is a sign of things to come, because I believe it is.

But, let me be clear, I’m not 110 percent sure a simple quarterback change saves the season. I am sure the possibility belongs on the table, because the excuses for Sarkisian and this offense as a whole are running out fast.