College football analyst predicts Alabama’s 2026 season will end in an all-too-familiar position for Crimson Tide fans
The Alabama Crimson Tide has flown under the radar all offseason, with many discounting what the team can do in 2026. While that may not be the case for Josh Pate, he has Alabama finishing in an all-too-familiar position.
With college football returning this weekend, Josh Pate has dropped his 2026 College Football Playoff bracket, and it paints an all-too-familiar picture for Alabama Crimson Tide fans. Pate has Alabama slotted as the No. 8 seed, projecting the Crimson Tide to beat USC in the first round before falling to No. 1 seed Notre Dame in the quarterfinals. Sound familiar? It should, because it mirrors what happened to Alabama last season against Indiana in the Rose Bowl.
The comparison only goes so far, though. These are predictions, not results. Nobody knows yet how good Notre Dame will be in 2026, even if many people have the Fighting Irish favored to be one of the better teams in the country, if not win the whole thing.
The outcome matters less than how Alabama gets there
The real question for Alabama fans isn’t whether an 8-seed losing to a 1-seed in the quarterfinals would be acceptable. It’s how the game plays out. There’s a massive difference between falling to Notre Dame in a tight, competitive game and getting blown out the way the Crimson Tide did against Indiana in the Rose Bowl.
If Alabama makes the College Football Playoff with a year-one quarterback, knocks off a USC team poised to be the best it has been under Lincoln Riley, and then loses a close one to a No. 1 seed in the semifinal round, that should qualify as a successful season. The context matters. Kalen DeBoer is still building, still working through what it means to take over for the greatest coach to ever coach probably any sport. The fact that the Crimson Tide made the playoff last year and showed year-over-year improvement is a positive trajectory.
Alabama cannot afford another Rose Bowl-style blowout
What every level-headed Alabama fan, media member, and person inside the program wants to avoid is a repeat of getting their doors blown off the way they did against Indiana. That’s the line in the sand. If Alabama can avoid that kind of embarrassment and compete in a potential quarterfinal matchup, the 2026 season should feel like progress.
Pate’s bracket looks like a realistic scenario for the Crimson Tide. Alabama as an 8-seed with a path through USC and into a date with a powerhouse feels about right for a program still finding its footing under DeBoer. Not every season has to end with a national championship to count as a step forward — for Alabama, proving they belong on that stage and can compete when they get there would go a long way toward building confidence in where this program is headed.
