The 2026 college football season is just over the horizon, and the Texas Longhorns head into the year with sky-high expectations under head coach Steve Sarkisian.

With quarterback Arch Manning returning and an offseason spent upgrading several positions, including the offensive line and adding former Auburn wide receiver Cam Coleman, Texas looks like a legitimate national title contender. Many projected brackets and preseason simulations have the Longhorns as one of the most talented rosters in the country.

To take any bias out of the conversation, I decided to run the Texas 2026 season through an AI simulation using ChatGPT. I asked for a full regular season breakdown, score predictions, a potential College Football Playoff berth if Texas qualified, stat leaders, and key storylines.

Here is what that simulation produced.

Regular season results

The simulation had Texas finishing the regular season with a 10-2 overall record, including 6-2 inside the SEC. That 10-2 mark was good enough to land the Longhorns the No. 5 seed in the College Football Playoff bracket, giving them roughly an 18% chance to win the national championship.

Week 1 opened with Texas rolling past Texas State 48-14. Manning finished 22-of-29 for 315 yards and three touchdown passes, with Coleman catching his first score as a Longhorn. Running back Hollywood Smothers broke off a long touchdown run, though the defense gave up a couple of explosive plays.

Week 2 delivered the statement win. Texas defeated Ohio State 34-27 in a game that changed the national perception of the program. Ohio State’s defensive front created problems early, but the Longhorns adjusted by attacking the Buckeyes horizontally. Manning completed 27-of-39 for 327 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Coleman hauled in seven catches for 119 yards and two scores.

The star of the game was pass rusher Colin Simmons, who recorded three sacks, four tackles for loss, and a forced fumble. Arch gained some Heisman Trophy hype with the win.

Week 3 was a 45-17 cruise past UTSA. Smothers carried 16 times for 126 yards and two touchdowns, and Manning played only three quarters. Texas entered the Tennessee game at 3-0.

The first loss and the bounce-back

Week 4 brought the first shock. Tennessee beat the Longhorns 31-24 in an 11 a.m. kickoff in Knoxville. The Vols’ defensive front forced Manning into quick decisions. Texas led 21-17 entering the fourth quarter, then Tennessee scored two touchdowns. Manning got one last drive, but Texas turned the ball over on downs. The national championship-or-bust talk got extremely loud.

A bye week followed, and Sarkisian used it to recalibrate. The biggest adjustment was increasing protection for Manning. The coaching staff determined Texas didn’t need him to throw 40 times per game when they had enough talent at running back and receiver to make defenses respect the entire field.

The Red River Rivalry in Week 6 saw Texas defeat Oklahoma 30-23 in a classic. Manning threw an early interception but dominated the fourth quarter, finishing 24-of-35 for 287 yards, two touchdowns, and one pick. Smothers ran 21 times for 118 yards and a touchdown. Simmons delivered another massive fourth-quarter sack, and the season was back on track.

Working through the SEC gauntlet

Texas beat Florida 38-20 in Week 7 as the defense dominated the second half. Simmons added 2.5 sacks, and linebacker Rasheem Biles had two of his own. Manning threw three touchdown passes.

Week 8 produced one of the best games of the year. Texas edged Ole Miss 35-31 at home in a game where the Longhorns looked vulnerable. Ole Miss generated several explosive plays and led 31-28 with 4:30 remaining. Manning led a 75-yard touchdown drive capped by a 31-yard strike to Coleman. Ole Miss got the ball back with 1:02 left, but Simmons generated pressure on fourth down to end it.

Mississippi State fell 41-17 in Week 9, a no-drama affair where Raleek Brown had his best game (15 carries, 108 yards, two touchdowns). Then came the second upset. Missouri stunned Texas 27-24 in an early November 11 a.m. kick in Columbia. Manning completed 25-of-38 for 298 yards and two touchdowns with an interception, but a 47-yard field goal attempt to tie the game hit the uprights. Texas moved to 7-2 with a razor-thin playoff margin.

The Longhorns saved themselves in Week 11 with a 34-30 win at LSU in Tiger Stadium at night. Manning was spectacular, going 29-of-41 for 361 yards and three touchdowns. Coleman caught eight passes for 143 yards and two scores. Simmons came up huge again with a sack on LSU’s final possession.

Texas handled Arkansas 37-21 in Week 12, with Smothers scoring twice and Manning throwing three more touchdowns. Then the Lone Star Showdown delivered. Texas won 31-28 at Kyle Field in a wild Thanksgiving weekend atmosphere. Texas A&M led 21-17 at halftime before Manning responded with a spectacular second half, finishing 26-of-37 for 319 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. With 1:48 left and Texas leading 31-28, A&M drove to the Texas 29. Fourth-and-7. Simmons got home for the sack to end it.

Season stat leaders

The simulation projected Manning to throw for 3,850 yards, 34 touchdowns, and eight interceptions on a 66.8% completion rate. He also added 390 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns. A Heisman finalist and potential winner.

Smothers ran for 1,250 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Brown added 750 rushing yards and eight touchdowns along with 320 receiving yards and three scores. Coleman finished with 73 receptions for 1,145 yards and 11 touchdowns. Sophomore tight end Nick Townsend broke out with 45 catches for 575 yards and six scores.

Defensively, Simmons led with 14.5 sacks, 20 tackles for loss, and four forced fumbles. Biles tallied 112 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, three sacks, and two interceptions. Jelani McDonald led the team with four interceptions.

As a team, Texas averaged 36.2 points and 475 total yards per game (310 passing, 165 rushing). The defense allowed 20.5 points per game and 335 total yards while generating 47 sacks and 25 forced turnovers.

The College Football Playoff run

Texas entered as the No. 5 seed. The full bracket: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Oregon, No. 3 Georgia, No. 4 Alabama, No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 7 LSU, No. 8 Ole Miss, No. 9 Miami, No. 10 Michigan, No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 12 Clemson.

In the first round at home, Texas defeated Clemson 41-24. Clemson’s defense kept things competitive early before Texas’s offensive talent became overwhelming. Manning threw for 325 yards and three touchdowns. Coleman had eight receptions for 134 yards and two scores. Simmons added 2.5 sacks.

The quarterfinal brought a 34-31 win over Notre Dame. Arch Manning versus C.J. Carr. Texas’s offensive line finally played its best game of the season. Notre Dame led 24-20 entering the fourth quarter before Manning threw a 47-yard touchdown to Ryan Wingo. Texas forced a punt, and Notre Dame’s final possession ended with an incompletion on fourth-and-4.

The semifinal was an absolute classic. Texas beat Georgia 38-34 in what the simulation called Manning’s “Heisman moment.” Georgia’s defense got after him all night, but Manning made three throws that almost nobody else in college football could make, finishing 31-of-44 for 382 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. Simmons came through with a strip sack with 47 seconds remaining.

The national championship

Ohio State 35, Texas 31. This is where the Longhorns finally fell short.

Ohio State’s defensive line exposed Texas’s biggest concern. The Longhorns fell behind 21-10 before Manning rallied the team. Texas took a 31-28 lead with 4:17 left, but Ohio State drove 75 yards for the go-ahead touchdown. Texas got one final possession. Fourth-and-8. Manning scrambled and got hit just after releasing the ball. Incomplete. Ohio State won 35-31, and the Longhorns’ dream season ended one game short.