Let’s do some award predictions for the upcoming college football season, and I’m kicking things off with the biggest of them all: the Heisman Trophy.

I’ll be honest here. I made this decision back in the spring, and I haven’t wavered. But first, let’s break down some of the other contenders I considered before planting the flag on who I believe will take home the award.

Top 2026 Heisman Trophy contenders I considered

I thought about Dante Moore, who is going to be electric in an offense perfectly curated for him to put up great statistics in a very difficult conference. CJ Carr is going to have the easiest schedule out of all the contenders and should put up a great amount of production. But is he going to have those signature moments, and is he going to be playing in the fourth quarter consistently? I thought about Jeremiah Smith too, the best player in college football, but is he going to get the volume in an Arthur Smith offense?

And you may say, Tegan, if Jeremiah Smith is the best player in college football, why not just pick him? Because the Heisman has never been purely about talent. It’s about opportunity, volume, and narrative. Just go back and look at DeVonta Smith’s Heisman-worthy season. Jeremiah Smith might be the most gifted player in the entire country, but a wide receiver in a run-heavy system doesn’t get enough touches to pile up the kind of numbers voters want to see.

Why Arch Manning is the pick and should honestly be the early favorite to win the Heisman

Arch Manning is my pick to win the Heisman this year. He just checks all the boxes I’m looking for. He’s a talented quarterback with a situation that I believe in, one that has upgraded across the board. The wide receivers have upgraded. The offensive line has upgraded. The rushing attack to complement his skill set has absolutely upgraded. Texas is putting him in a position to succeed at the highest level.

And then there’s the media machine. If Arch Manning has just an ounce of success, he’s going to get pushed to the top. That’s not a knock on him. That’s the reality of being the most talked-about quarterback prospect in college football for the last half-decade. The coverage is going to amplify every big game, every comeback, every highlight. That only helps his case.

I thought about it time and time again. If we get to the end of the season and he ends up winning it, are we going to look back at the preseason and just say, why didn’t we choose him? It was so obvious at the time. Sometimes you just have to go with what makes sense. He’s going to have every opportunity in front of him to win this award.

3 other dark horse contenders worth watching

I also want to give some dark horse contenders a shout, guys who aren’t being talked about enough.

Keelon Russell, for example, has a fantastic chance. That Alabama offense is going to be heavily reliant on the production of a quarterback. Plus, he’s going to have to run the football, which is only going to help his Heisman case.

I’m also putting Byrum Brown on the board. Auburn has that offensive system perfectly curated for his skill set. He’s another dual-threat guy who could put up numbers in a hurry.

And then there’s Lincoln Kienholz in Louisville. That’s going to be my third dark horse contender. I have a big belief that Jeff Brom is going to get the most out of this kid. He could break out onto the scene in his Week 1 matchup against Ole Miss, and that could kick off a Heisman campaign. It wouldn’t shock me.

Those are three names I want to give a shout to. But if I’m making a prediction, it’s going to be the chalky pick. It’s Arch Manning, and it’s an easy pick to roll with into the season.