The Texas Longhorns have a 72% chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to A to Z Sports’ College Football Playoff Predictor. That number could easily change over the next few weeks.

Texas has three regular-season games left, starting with a massive matchup against LSU this week, and the Longhorns’ playoff odds depend on more than their own results. Texas sits at 7-2 overall and 4-2 in the SEC. The Longhorns are projected to finish with around nine wins, which would still be a good season in Austin.

Whether that record is enough to get them into the playoff is the real question. A to Z Sports’ predictor still likes the Longhorns’ chances to make the field. A conference title is a different story.

Texas’ current playoff odds

• 72% chance to make the College Football Playoff – 23% chance to earn a first-round bye – 17% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game – 8% chance to win the national title – 7% chance to win the SEC

This week’s LSU game carries a lot of weight. A win over the Tigers would push Texas up to a 98% chance to make the playoff. A loss would drop the Longhorns to 55%. However, a loss to LSU would not end things. Say Texas falls to the Tigers, then beats Arkansas in Week 12 and finishes with a win over Texas A&M.

That tells you where the biggest swing on the schedule is. In terms of probability and odds, the Arkansas game appears to matter most of the three that remain. Beating LSU would be great for Texas. Avoiding a slip against Arkansas could be what decides it.

4 results Texas fans need to root for

What Texas does on the field is only part of it. Fans also need results elsewhere in the SEC to break their way over the next three weeks.

• Tennessee beats Texas A&M in Week 11 – Florida beats Kentucky in Week 11 – Oklahoma beats Texas A&M in Week 12 – Tennessee beats LSU in Week 12

The Oklahoma one will hurt. Rooting for the Sooners in anything is a tough ask for a Longhorns fan, but Texas needs Oklahoma to take care of Texas A&M. Texas already has a win over the Volunteers, and every Tennessee win makes that victory look better on the Longhorns’ resume.

A Tennessee win over LSU would also help Texas, since LSU is another ranked opponent the two teams share. If Texas beats the Tigers this week, that win looks even stronger when the committee compares resumes. Florida beating Kentucky rounds out the list. If all four of those games go the way Texas needs, it only strengthens the Longhorns’ case.

Texas still has work to do

The Longhorns have a long way to go before anyone knows for sure whether they will make the College Football Playoff. The offense still needs to improve in certain areas, and that has to show up against a quality LSU team. The good news for Texas is that the math is forgiving.

Even the worst realistic outcome this week leaves the door open, as long as the Longhorns handle Arkansas and Texas A&M. Still, a win over LSU would make the next two weeks far less stressful. Either way, this week’s game against the Tigers is huge for Texas, and a lot is riding on it. We will see if the Longhorns can put it together.