I’m calling it right now. Texas wide receiver Cam Coleman is about to have the game Longhorn fans have been waiting on for weeks, and he’s going to do it against Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout.

Everyone has said it, and they’re right: Texas vs. Oklahoma is one of the best rivalries in all of college football. The Texas Longhorns come in as roughly a 7.5-point favorite, but the total is low. Nobody is expecting a shootout in this version of the Red River Rivalry. In a game projected to be this tight and this ugly, one or two plays decide it.

To be clear, Coleman is not my No. 1 X-factor for Texas. That’s running back Hollywood Smothers, and I’m not backing off that. But there’s a difference between the guy who drives the game plan and the guy who has the signature moment. The latter is going to be one of the most prized transfer portal additions of the entire cycle.

The box score lies about Cam Coleman’s history vs. Oklahoma

You may pull up his old box scores against the Sooners and say the production doesn’t jump off the page. You’d be right about those numbers.

But I remember exactly where I was when Coleman was consistently creating downfield explosives against this Oklahoma defense. He was winning on 25-yard shots that the quarterback just missed. The receiver did his job. The ball didn’t get there.

Now, I’m not saying quarterback Arch Manning is an absolute assassin when it comes to accuracy. He’s not, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise. But Manning gives Coleman a far better chance of turning those wins into catches than Jackson Arnold or any other quarterback Auburn trotted out to try to get him the ball. That’s the whole difference. Same receiver, same matchup, better arm on the other end.

It’s also about how the Sooners play defense. Oklahoma shows a lot of man coverage, and Coleman’s physicality is built for exactly that. Put him one-on-one on the outside and let him go win at the catch point. That’s the matchup I want if I’m Texas.

Why the volume might not be there, and why that doesn’t matter

Let’s be honest about how the Longhorns have used Coleman. For most of the season, he has been a disguise and maybe a shot play or two per game. Think back to the play against Ohio State that turned into an interception. Texas is using him a lot like it used Adonai Mitchell. He’s the vertical threat who stretches the field, not the guy who racks up targets.

The volume goes elsewhere. Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V are the ones soaking up catches over the course of a game, and I don’t see that changing just because it’s Oklahoma week. So no, I’m not predicting some monster stat line for Coleman. He might not even break 80 yards. That’s fine.

In a low-scoring rivalry game, you don’t need 10 catches to win it. You need one to two plays where the receiver beats man coverage, the quarterback puts it on him, and the momentum swings for good. That’s the kind of performance that goes beyond the box score.

That’s what I’m stamping. This will be the signature game from Cam Coleman, the one that makes him worth every single penny Texas spent to land him in the transfer portal. The numbers might end up looking modest, but the few big plays that decide this game will have his name attached to them.