Minnesota Vikings were proven right in taking J.J. McCarthy over Bo Nix, and the reason is very simple
When you take a quarterback in the first round of the NFL Draft, the hope is they become a massive difference maker for the franchise.
The Minnesota Vikings took J.J. McCarthy in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and it was the right bet to make at the position.
Yes, things didn’t work out, and that’s incredibly frustrating. It wasn’t due to a lack of tools or raw talent, but rather the ability to apply it on the field. His time in Minnesota ended in September, when the Vikings traded him to the New York Giants for a fifth-round pick. That officially declared him a bust.
Even so, he was still a smarter selection than Bo Nix, who was taken 12th overall by the Denver Broncos.
J.J. McCarthy was still a better selection than Bo Nix
That feels weird to say about two quarterbacks who have had different levels of success. McCarthy was 6-4 as a starter, and Nix is 28-12, but it’s not so much about their records; it’s how they got them.
After an abysmal Thursday night against the Seattle Seahawks, Ryan Fitzpatrick buried him in the postgame. The main reason? Fitzpatrick didn’t think he was playing competitive football.
It’s not much of a surprise, either. Nix finished the game 17-27 for 107 yards with an abysmal aDOT of 4.7 per Fantasy Points Data. He’s never had an aDOT higher than 8.0 yards in his career, which is weird considering he’s playing for Sean Payton. His advanced numbers are really rough. Out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks, his EPA/dropback is 31st, CPOE 30th, and yards per attempt dead last.
The reality with Nix is simple: he’s the same player with the Broncos that he was with the Oregon Ducks, and that wasn’t going to change. He started 61 games in college between Oregon and the Auburn Tigers, and the template was the same: when you give him the answers, he can make the play. First-reads and screens were littered in the offenses created for him by Kenny Dillingham and Will Stein. They did a great job of crafting an offense to limit Nix’s deficiencies with a narrow menu, and it resulted in success at the college level. The problem was that offense was never going to work in the NFL.
Nix struggles to read defenses and make confident decisions, which was all over his tape on Thursday, and has been a constant through his two and a half seasons in the NFL. It’s also why taking a player like McCarthy was the smart bet.
The reality is this: McCarthy had unrealized potential, and you could see a future where he elevates your offense to another level. It stinks that he never reached that potential, but Nix never had that. He gave you a baseline of success that you can win games with if everything goes your way. That’s what he’s had with the Broncos so far.
Now comes the answer to the question: why is McCarthy a better selection than Nix when the Vikings already traded him? That’s an easy answer: there is nothing good in the answer being “maybe” in year three.
McCarthy made it clear after two years to the Vikings that he wasn’t the answer, so general manager Nolan Teasley moved on, choosing not to believe in the sunk cost fallacy. He gave the Vikings an answer, and they moved forward.
With Nix, it’s a lot more complicated. He’s been great by record at 28-12, but the actual on-field play leaves you both frustrated and questioning everything about his future. Being in limbo with your starting quarterback, with the fifth-year option and a potential $50+ million extension looming, is not a great position to be in. The Dolphins paid Tua Tagovailoa with some similar, but different, question marks, and they just ate nearly $100 million in dead salary cap to move on from him.
When you look at what the Vikings have built right now, investing in Nix, who may not even have their offense in a better spot than it currently is, could be catastrophic for a player like Justin Jefferson. Taking Nix is the same as selecting complacency. That’s fine with a guard or nose tackle, but not quarterback.
Simply put: it’s best to take a swing on someone who could be great and be wrong than take a known commodity at quarterback who will keep you in a state of limbo. Even though former general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell were wrong, they made the right choice in McCarthy.
Sometimes, the answer being no is better than maybe. That’s how you get saddled with Kirk Cousins for 6 years at a premium, but that’s a different story.
