A pair of Chris Ballard’s last big decisions could force the Indianapolis Colts’ hand ahead of the 2026 NFL trade deadline
A rebuild without a first-round pick or a settled quarterback leaves the Indianapolis Colts with some uncomfortable math as the trade deadline approaches.
The Indianapolis Colts‘ most attractive trade piece is the one they probably hope to keep the most. As Indianapolis works through the rest of the season and approaches the NFL trade deadline without former general manager Chris Ballard, wide receiver Josh Downs is a name worth watching closely.
The problem for the Colts and Downs? The Colts have already made a big-money decision at wide receiver. Ballard gave Alec Pierce a lucrative contract to keep him in-house. And the Colts are light on premium draft capital thanks to the Sauce Gardner trade. Those choices may change the calculus for Downs, potentially pushing the franchise toward a move nobody wants to make as Downs nears the end of his rookie contract.
Why Josh Downs is such an attractive trade deadline target
Start with the contract. Downs is 25 years old and playing on a salary of less than $4 million. He’s scheduled for free agency this winter. Any team that acquires him at the midway point of the season would only owe him whatever balance remains on that $4 million salary. For a contender looking for a receiving boost, that’s about as friendly a price tag as you’ll find—albeit on a rental.
Then consider the player. Downs has been productive, and he’s done it in an offense that probably isn’t putting him in the best position to be the most complete version of himself. In the right situation, with the right quarterback and the right scheme, he could be a persistent 1,000 yard player. A front office with an eye on both this season and the next few would have every reason to pick up the phone.
The position itself plays a role, too. Wide receivers get moved at the deadline all the time. A strong track record exists of teams swapping receivers in season, which means the market and the precedent are both there for Indianapolis if it chooses to explore it.
The Colts’ rebuild could make paying 2 receivers hard to justify
And let’s be honest about the Colts. This looks like a team staring at smashing the reset button in the offseason.
The list of decisions is long. Indianapolis could be moving on from veteran names like defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, guard Quenton Nelson, and defensive tackle Grover Stewart. The front office still has to figure out what it’s doing at quarterback with (or without) Daniel Jones. Running back Jonathan Taylor’s future is another question mark if the Colts truly commit to a teardown.
Take inventory of where the Colts are at. Indianapolis doesn’t have a long-term quarterback. With currently no GM. And it doesn’t have a first-round pick to jumpstart the process. In that environment, are you going to pay a second wide receiver when the roster has holes everywhere else? Maybe. But also maybe not.
Josh Downs should be a building block, but logic points elsewhere
By all logic, Downs should be a long-term building block for the Colts. He’s young, talented, and he’s already produced. He’s the kind of success story a franchise should want to build around.
But the Pierce contract isn’t going anywhere. The question isn’t whether Downs is good enough to keep. It’s whether paying two wide receivers makes more sense than what Indianapolis could get back for Downs at the trade deadline. And what kind of offers they may get before this year’s deadline.
That’s the uncomfortable reality here. Because of the Pierce deal and because of where the franchise sits, it may behoove the Colts to kick off this rebuild by shopping Downs instead of extending him. Getting some extra draft capital could help aid their GM vacancy in the months ahead. It’s not the outcome anyone would have drawn up in a vacuum. But it might be the right one. And the deadline will tell us whether the next regime in Indianapolis sees it the same way.
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