Packers could be about to unlock something bigger with Josh Jacobs back, even after a costly mistake against Lions
The veteran running back made his season debut after six games on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, and the box score doesn’t tell the whole story.
The Green Bay Packers finally had running back Josh Jacobs back on the field Sunday after he missed the first six games of the regular season on the NFL’s Commissioner’s Exempt List. It wasn’t a perfect performance in the 20-17 loss to the Detroit Lions, and the Packers’ run game is still very much a problem.
Even so, Jacobs was a clear upgrade over what Green Bay had at running back, and the potential for something bigger at the position is finally there.
A box score that undersells the performance
On the surface, the rushing numbers don’t jump off the page. Jacobs had 11 carries for only 36 yards, a 3.3 yards-per-carry average. MarShawn Lloyd had the same average on his six carries, finishing with 20 yards. Based on that alone, it would be fair to say Jacobs didn’t add much to the running game. That’s not what actually happened.
Then there is the play that will stick with the Packers. On their final offensive drive, Jordan Love found Jacobs for what should have been a touchdown, potentially the game-winning one. Jacobs dropped it. Green Bay missed a 36-yard field goal right after, and the Lions drove down the field and kicked a field goal of their own to win the game. It was a costly mistake.
Still, the receiving production was there for most of the afternoon. Jacobs caught five of his seven targets for 55 yards and a touchdown. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur saw both sides of the performance after the game.
“There were a lot of good things he did, “LaFleur said. “Obviously, the touchdown reception on the choice route was a spectacular play, and he sparked some good runs. But ultimately, we’re still not running the ball consistently enough.”
Jacobs produced well despite tough circumstances
Jacobs had a solid game once you dig into the numbers. The down-to-down consistency wasn’t there, mostly because of run blocking issues that no running back can fix by himself.
The gap between Jacobs and Lloyd shows up quickly in the advanced data. Jacobs averaged 2.73 yards after contact per attempt, compared to 1.50 for Lloyd. Neither back had a designed run of 15 or more yards. Green Bay was 22nd in rush EPA in Week 7, up from 32nd through Weeks 1 to 6.
PFF’s Elusive Rating, a stat that measures a runner’s success and impact with the ball independently of the blocking, makes the gap even clearer. Jacobs posted a 51.1 rating, while Lloyd was at 18.8. Against the Lions specifically, that individual talent didn’t translate into a notable rushing line. Over a larger sample, it should.
Jacobs was also far more productive as a receiver. He generated 2.75 yards per route run against 1.36 from Lloyd. Green Bay now has a better runner and a better pass-catcher in the backfield, one capable of generating more beyond what the offensive lines gives him. And based on how the offensive line has played, that’s key.
What to expect in the next few games
Peter Bukowski from The Leap and Locked on Packers pointed out that Jacobs had only eight yards on his first five carries before picking up 26 yards on his final six, including runs of eight and 10 yards. After six weeks without playing, Jacobs clearly got more comfortable as the game went on.
That progression is what could matter most for the Packers down the stretch. If Green Bay can make some changes along the offensive line to improve the run blocking, that would be huge. But even without that, Jacobs getting acclimated to the offense again over a series of games could be massive.
Philosophically and stylistically, the Packers need an efficient run game to be a consistent offense while they hunt explosive plays through the air. Jacobs’ importance to this offense is obviously high. Green Bay is trusting him to fill that role and bring the rushing attack to some level of competency, and his first game back showed he still has the tools to do it.
