The Miami Hurricanes are the No. 1 team in the country and for good reason. Aside from a close win over rival Florida State and a shaky quarter against a top 15 team in Wake Forest, the Hurricanes have absolutely dominated the competition and looked like the nation’s best team.

As such, it’s no surprise they have the highest predicted playoff odds entering Week 9 of the college football season at 98%. But could that change depending on how things go in the Hurricanes’ toughest remaining tests.

ESPN’s Heather Dinich certainly seems to think so. For weeks, she’s mused the idea of a two-loss Miami team, with one of those losses taking place in the ACC Championship Game, as an iffy playoff contender at 11-2. She repeated that in her most recent piece on Wednesday night.

“But ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) still projects the Hurricanes to lose a close one at Notre Dame on Nov. 7,” Dinich wrote. “Should that happen, it won’t matter if the Canes win the ACC; but if they don’t, a two-loss ACC runner-up will open the door for debate.”

History and the odds say Miami should be in the playoff if they lose to Notre Dame and in ACC title game

Recent history with the 12-team playoff says Miami being left out in that particular scenario is likely not happening. Each of the last two years, the committee could have dropped out a team who lost in their conference championship game. SMU lost to Clemson in 2024 in a close game to finish 11-2, and last year Alabama got blown out against Georgia to finish 10-3. SMU stayed in the field, and Alabama did too, and the latter without even dropping.

So, it’s clear the committee doesn’t like to penalize massively for a championship game loss such that they drop them out of the field.

A to Z Sports’ playoff predictor agrees with the Canes’ very strong odds to make the field as an 11-2 conference title game loser. In that hypothetical, with a loss to Notre Dame, Miami would have a 78% chance of making the playoff.

I also purposefully made it as challenging as possible for Miami as an at large candidate here, with Utah and BYU both going 11-1 and playing for the Big 12 title (as such, both get in), and Indiana and Ohio State both finishing 11-1 with IU winning a rematch for the Big Ten title. I had Georgia winning the SEC at 12-1, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, and Kentucky all going 10-2 (which is technically possible but highly unlikely). In that specific scenario, which is about the worst case for the Hurricanes at 11-2, it’s 78% for Miami, which is still very solid.

Eliminate some 10-2 SEC teams, and the odds vault up to 91%.

Those are the odds where LSU and Kentucky go 10-2, Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee all go 9-3, and Florida finishes 8-4. A plausible scenario, with LSU hosting Bama and Texas and going to Tennessee.

So, as long as Miami takes care of business to get to 11-1, the playoff appears to be very likely through recent history and the odds. Of course, it’s not something the Hurricanes want to leave to chance. And if they continue playing like they have been, there’s a decent chance we could see a zero in the loss column for Miami once the final playoff rankings are announced.