On paper, the Dallas Cowboys should beat the Indianapolis Colts in Week 9. The Colts just sold off two of their best players ahead of the trade deadline, sending away defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson.

Additionally, quarterback Daniel Jones has struggled. The expectation is that running back Jonathan Taylor will be traded before the deadline. Taylor had only eight carries for 23 rushing yards in Week 8, which feeds the sense that this Colts team has “quit” on the 2026 NFL season.

Meanwhile, Dallas is heading to Indianapolis hungry for a win after arguably its most devastating regular-season loss in a long time. The Cowboys blew a 14-3 halftime lead against the Arizona Cardinals, then let a double-digit lead slip away with a little over two minutes left in the fourth quarter.

The numbers favor Dallas

The Cowboys own the seventh-best offense in EPA per play. They’re facing the 28th-best offense in that same metric. The Colts aren’t much better on the other side of the ball. Indianapolis ranks 23rd in defensive EPA per play.

That is to say, it should be a tough task for Indy to win this one. That’s why the Cowboys are 5.5-point favorites to win it. But there’s one thing that should worry Cowboys fans: the injury situation in the defensive backfield.

Cowboys’ defense could be down multiple starting DBs

Here’s what we know about this Cowboys team. With the way their defense is set up, they’ll give any offense a chance. It’s just not good enough.

Some people like to blame Christian Parker. The reality is the problems go well beyond scheme. Blown assignments are commonplace when you review the film, as are missed tackles and poor reads. A lot of this falls on execution.

Opposing quarterbacks like Gardner Minshew and Tanner McKee have moved the ball against Dallas. So don’t be surprised if Jones goes off against this secondary, even if it’s healthy.

And it might not be healthy. Safeties Caleb Downs, PJ Locke, and cornerback Joey Porter Jr. are the names to watch

Caleb Downs entered the concussion protocol after Sunday’s loss to Arizona. That means the Cowboys could be down one of their two best defensive players, if not both.

Downs has caught a lot of heat because the numbers are bad, and he has struggled at times in coverage at nickel. To be fair, he has been asked to do a lot. The truth is he has been one of the bright spots on this defense, even in an unfortunate situation where he fills whichever roster hole the Cowboys have that week instead of moving around to maximize his talents like the original plan called for.

Missing Downs would hurt Dallas a lot. Just remember how much the Cowboys struggled when Reddy Stewart was playing nickel. If they have to turn to a backup at that spot again, maybe through Derion Kendrick, it won’t look pretty.

PJ Locke is also in the concussion protocol. If he can’t go, Malik Hooker would be the only Week 1 starter left at safety, barring a Jalen Thompson activation the Cowboys haven’t hinted at. It doesn’t seem like Thompson will be a go for Week 9. Beyond Hooker, Dallas would have to play either Markquese Bell or Alijah Clark at safety, and both have shown they’re just not enough at the position.

Then there’s Porter, who is dealing with an ankle injury. He has played through it, but he couldn’t finish the game against the Cardinals when the Cowboys needed him most. The Cowboys have to ask themselves if they should rest him to allow him to heal instead of playing the on-and-off game. 

Without Porter, Dallas would be down to DaRon Bland, who has mightily struggled this season, and Cobie Durant, who just returned from injury last week and is still adapting after multiple missed games. And I’m not sure who plays nickel if Porter, Locke, and Downs are all out. Maybe the Cowboys turn to Kendrick. Maybe they slide Durant inside and play Ameer Speed at outside corner—which didn’t go great versus the Cardinals. 

However they line it up, this secondary is going to have holes. And quarterbacks have gotten after it even when it didn’t have this many.

The concussion protocol often takes players out for at least one week, and it’s possible the Cowboys are without all three. If that’s the case, the Colts will be able to throw on them.

Will Josh Downs and Taylor still be with the Colts at the end of the week? Maybe not. But as of right now, I’m assuming they are. If so, this team has the weapons to get after a Cowboys defense that’s expected to be as banged up as it’s been all season. Maybe even without them. 

We’ll see what the injury report says by Friday.