The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are flipping the page to the Chicago Bears, and rightfully so. This Week 9 matchup on the road on Sunday Night Football is a major litmus test. Still, one question deserves an answer first: do the Buccaneers have the best secondary in the NFL?

I believe they do. Look no further than the numbers.

Through the first eight weeks, the Bucs are tied with the Minnesota Vikings for the NFL lead in EPA per pass allowed at -0.28. That’s a ridiculous number. Every time a team throws against Tampa Bay, it loses nearly 0.3 of a point on that play. Five straight pass plays at that rate hypothetically costs an offense roughly 1.5 points, and that obviously adds up quickly.

Tampa Bay also has a league-leading 12 interceptions. Granted, only five of those come from defensive backs, which cuts against the argument a bit. However, the Buccaneers secondary is also tied for the eighth-fewest passing touchdowns allowed. Since Week 5, only one quarterback has thrown more than one touchdown pass in a game against the Bucs. That was Aaron Rodgers, and he needed overtime to do it.

Health is a big part of the story. Even with safety Antoine Winfield Jr. missing a couple of games with a rib injury, this group hasn’t had to shuffle constantly the way past Bucs secondaries did. Those units, featuring guys like Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis, were often forced to lean on practice squad players. This secondary also has more depth than it’s had in years.

Zyon McCollum is playing like a top-5 cornerback

Make no mistake, this all starts with cornerback Zyon McCollum. He’s one of the best corners in the NFL this season, and I’m not talking top 10. I’m talking top 3-5.

McCollum’s two interceptions are tied for ninth-most among all defensive backs. He hasn’t allowed a touchdown, and he ranks No. 1 in coverage EPA at -25.4, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Quarterbacks have a 44.0 passer rating when targeting him, which is eighth-best in the league. Filter it down to qualified players with at least 30 targets, and McCollum leads the NFL, ahead of Browns CB Denzel Ward, who many believe is having an All-Pro season.

The individual matchups, provided by the Buccaneers’ communications staff, are even more impressive:

• Ja’Marr Chase: nine matchups, one target, zero receptions
• Tee Higgins: 12 matchups, two targets, one catch for 18 yards
• Jerry Jeudy: seven matchups, zero targets
• Denzel Boston: eight matchups, two targets, two receptions 24 yards
• Jordan Addison: eight matchups, two targets, zero receptions
• Christian Watson and Matthew Golden: 13 combined matchups, one catch for 13 yards
• CeeDee Lamb: 11 matchups, one target, zero receptions
• George Pickens: four matchups, one target, zero receptions
• Tetairoa McMillan: 10 matchups, one target, one reception, seven yards
• Jalen Coker: two matchups, one target, zero receptions, one interception
• Drake London: six matchups, three targets, zero receptions
• Kyle Pitts/Charlie Woerner: four matchups, one target, zero receptions, one interception

Justin Jefferson got hurt in the first quarter of that game, which matters. Still, no receiver has recorded more than 32 yards against McCollum this season. The one who reached that mark was Steelers WR DK Metcalf in Week 6. That was a strange game, too, since Pittsburgh threw on 16 or 17 straight plays in the second half and had extra time in overtime.

The biggest growth in McCollum’s game is his “hawk rate”, which tracks plays on the ball. He’s always played sticky coverage and disrupted the catch point, but he wasn’t a corner who turned those chances into takeaways. Now he is, and that’s the key to unlocking the next step in his career.

Jacob Parrish and Tykee Smith give the Bucs a young foundation

Jacob Parrish leads the NFL with 13 pass defenses, while McCollum is tied for fourth with nine. Tampa Bay is the only team with two players ranked in the top 10 in opposing passer rating allowed (minimum 30 targets). That’s absolutely huge.

Then there’s safety Tykee Smith. He’s known as a box player, but he’s shown real range in coverage this season. He picked off Bryce Young on a great read, blocked a PAT against the Panthers, and continues to force fumbles and make plays against the run.

If Smith stays on this trajectory, he’s the perfect complement to Winfield. Winfield is the team’s one true post safety who can play center field, which lets Smith operate freely within six or seven yards of the line of scrimmage. That frees up the entire defense for Todd Bowles.

Winfield, however, has to start making splash plays again. That’s what earned him what was then the richest safety contract in NFL history. Right now, the play he’s best known for this season is the missed tackle on Jahan Dotson that turned into a 76-yard catch-and-run and gave the Falcons a little hope. Your best players can’t do that.

Keionte Scott’s growth adds to the depth

Keionte Scott has become the Bucs’ third corner, handling nickel duties while Parrish rotates in and out depending on the matchup. He’s overtaken Benjamin Morrison and ranks third or fourth on the team in both tackles and pass breakups.

Size is a concern in the slot, especially with 6-foot-4 receivers lining up inside these days. Scheme and execution can offset that, though, and Scott keeps improving week to week. Morrison also played well when he stepped up early in the season. He got hurt again and hasn’t played a defensive snap since returning, but he’s shown enough growth to matter if injuries strike.

The numbers speak for themselves. The tape speaks for itself. There’s no doubt about that, and the Buccaneers have the best secondary in the NFL. Now it’s about carrying that into Chicago on Sunday night.