The Detroit Lions host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, and it’s time to run this one through the prediction lab. We’ll go through where the Lions can win, what can get them beat, what ultimately decides the game, and a final score prediction for Lions vs. Dolphins.

Where the Lions can win

For starters, have some deep shots ready for Jameson Williams. Last week, Miami gave up two passing touchdowns of more than 40 yards against New England. That wasn’t a one-week thing, either. The Dolphins have allowed 42 total explosive plays, including 21 explosive passes of more than 20 yards.

This isn’t the worst defense in the world. It will hand you some explosives, though, so Detroit needs to be ready to take them.

Next, contain Malik Willis. He isn’t the best quarterback the Lions will face this year, but he has mobility, and mobility can hurt any defense. When Detroit sends pressure, that pressure has to count. A rush that flushes him off his spot, gets him outside the pocket, and turns into a 10-yard scramble for a first down is a losing rep.

The pressure has to contain him and bring him down. That means wrapping up on tackles and sacks. No throwing a shoulder. No swiping at the ball. Tackle Willis, and don’t let him get slippery and escape trouble.

The Lions should also force Miami’s young defenders to communicate. Rookie safety Michael Taaffe, cornerback Chris Johnson, and linebacker Jacob Rodriguez are all very young, and they played every defensive snap against the Patriots. Expect the same this week. Motion, formation changes, and different personnel groupings can test their assignments. Throw problems at them that they probably won’t know how to solve for another couple of years.

Finally, keep feeding Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions ran for 230 yards last week against the best defense in the league. Let’s see more of that. Make Miami’s front handle the run before it ever has to figure out how to stop Jared Goff.

What can get the Lions beat

This is the one I wrote about in our first thing to know about the Dolphins. Miami pressured Drake Maye on 57.1% of his first-half dropbacks while blitzing just one time. That’s a disruptive defense. It gets to the quarterback without pulling bodies out of coverage.

I know a lot of Lions fans read that and thought Detroit has the better offensive line. There’s no doubt it does. Goff has also handled pressure a lot better this year. Still, pressure has been a problem for him in the past.

There’s a difference between blitzing and pressure. If a team gets home without blitzing, it doesn’t have to change how it attacks the quarterback. It just gets there. That means Goff is under pressure while Miami still has plenty of defenders in coverage. That’s where mistakes happen.

Another danger is letting Willis rescue third downs. Miami converts 42.7% of its third downs, which ranked ninth in the league through Week 8. Detroit can’t treat third-and-long like a possession it’s already won. Buckle down on third down like it’s first or second down. Don’t make the mistake of thinking this team can’t convert.

That ties back into discipline against Willis. He can run all over the place, and he can move the chains on third and fourth down. He converted two fourth downs with his legs against the Jets two weeks ago. If the Lions get overaggressive in pursuit, he’ll make them pay. Get the right pressure, finish as many times as possible, and don’t let him beat you outside the pocket.

What ultimately decides the game

If Detroit can make Miami defend the entire offense without letting its pass rush control the afternoon, the Lions are going to win this game. It’s really that simple.

Miami has a good pass rush and a solid defense. If the Lions can go out there, beat that front up, and keep the pressure from rattling Goff, they’ll come out on top. They also need to finish their scoring opportunities and control what they can control on defense. Win third down, keep Willis in the pocket, and put together good possessions.

Final score prediction

I think the Lions win this one. I’m going with a 27-14 win for Detroit, which would give it a fourth straight victory.

Let’s see what happens.

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