ESPN writer points out major inconsistency by committee regarding the Miami Hurricanes in latest playoff rankings, and a crucial stat backs him up
The Hurricanes are the unfortunate exception to what’s been an otherwise constant rule by the selection committee.
The Miami Hurricanes took a step back in the right direction on Tuesday night with the release of the second College Football Playoff rankings. After debuting at #18 in last week’s rankings, Miami moved up to #15 in this week’s rankings and were show in the bracket as the ACC’s top-ranked team (even though the Canes’ path to Charlotte is murkier than many it is for other teams).
For Miami, the most likely way to the playoff is through an at large berth, and at 15, it’s possible. However, one ESPN writer believes the Canes are the unfair outlier among an otherwise consistent trend by the selection committee.
David Hale notes that, despite comparable resumes, Miami still being six spots behind Notre Dame is wrong.
ESPN’s David Hale argues Miami is the unfair exception to the head-to-head rule the committee has consistently followed this year
Hale opened by talking about how the committee had Georgia ahead of Ole Miss, Texas ahead of Oklahoma, BYU ahead of Utah, Virginia ahead of Louisville, and USC ahead of Michigan thanks to the head-to-head factor, and then he continued with the following:
“Please explain why Miami is different.
“The Hurricanes’ metrics are solid. They’re 13th in SP+, 13th in strength of record, have four wins vs. FPI top-35 teams (i.e. the top 25% of FBS) — more than anyone but Texas A&M and Alabama — and, of course, have the same record as Notre Dame and hold the head-to-head victory over the Irish.
“The committee, however, has Notre Dame ranked ninth and Miami 15th.
“It’s nonsensical on its face, and worse when you consider the committee also has Texas (with a worse loss than either of Miami’s), Utah (just one FPI top-35 win) and Vanderbilt (four spots behind Miami in FPI) all ranked higher, too.
“Again, it’s certainly possible the Canes lose this week to NC State — a team that has already taken down Virginia and Georgia Tech — but that’s not the point. The committee isn’t supposed to guess what will happen next. It’s supposed to rank teams based on what they’ve done so far, and there is absolutely no metric that warrants Miami’s placement behind so many two-loss teams with clearly inferior résumés.”
The committee’s love for Notre Dame is pretty obvious because the difference in the resumes of the Irish and Hurricanes isn’t what they’re making it to be. Based on wins, Notre Dame doesn’t have them. Their best win is at home against USC, which is a good win, but their three of their seven wins are against the last place team in the SEC (Arkansas), ACC (Boston College), and Big Ten (Purdue), all of whom are winless in conference play this season. And that Boston College game was a low-scoring rock fight until the fourth quarter if we’re being honest.
Whereas, aside from the head-to-head factor over the Irish that’s not being given enough weight, Miami has a three other FPI top 35 wins that includes a 37-point shellacking over the team the committee projects to be in the playoff field, USF. That win has barely made the radar of public discussion regarding Miami’s resume. And the Hurricanes also hold a 26-7 win over the Florida team that handled convincingly an up-and-down Texas team this year – who, by the way, checked in at #10 in the rankings – that’s won too often by the skin of their teeth against inferior teams (i.e., overtime wins over Mississippi State and Kentucky).
Basically, the committee should just be honest and say, “we think Jeremiyah Love is really good, and we’re putting eye test over metrics here” as to why the Irish are six spots ahead of Miami. Because their own logic and criteria don’t support the Hurricanes’ current placement.
