It's the natural reaction of any passionate fanbase to hit the panic button when their team remains quiet through the initial wave of free agency signings. Anticipation is at an all-time high, and fans are eager to see improvements to their team's roster. Some teams need those changes more than others.

We are now through the first day of the NFL free agent frenzy, and the Tennessee Titans have made just one signing, LT Andre Dillard, while letting Nate Davis, David Long Jr., and DeMarcus Walker sign elsewhere. And right on queue, the fanbase was quickly perturbed. 

There's no shame in panic or frustration. After all, fan is short for fanatic, and as stated earlier, those are natural reactions of a passionate fan that so desperately wants their team to be the premier destination for the NFL's stars. Fans always demand change after an underwhelming season. I mean, with so many holes to fill, how is it possible that the Titans could just sit there idly and watch the rich get richer?

But as much as you may want to feel outraged and impatient, NFL analytics should give Titans fans confidence in the free agent history of new General Manager Ran Carthon. It's time to sit back, and let Ran do what he does best.

APPROXIMATE VALUE

Before diving into all of the numbers, it's important to understand what exactly we'll be looking at. The study, done by TheAthletic.com, uses a metric known as Approximate Value (AV) to measure every organization's recent success in free agency. AV is a metric used by ProFootballReference.com as “an attempt to put a single number on the seasonal value of a player at any position from any year (since 1960).”

Think baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement), but a more imperfect version that's applied to NFL football.

For reference, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts tied as the NFL leaders for AV in 2022 with a value of 20. Micah Parson and Matt Milano led all defensive players at 19 and Tom Brady is the all-time leader with 326.

AV's creator, Doug Drinen, acknowledges that while the statistic is not a direct reflection of one player being more or less productive than another, it can be accurately used to place a player in a tier or group of players that have similar impact. For this example, that will do just fine.

"AV is not meant to be a be-all end-all metric. Football stat lines just do not come close to capturing all the contributions of a player the way they do in baseball and basketball. If one player is a 16 and another is a 14, we can't be very confident that the 16AV player actually had a better season than the 14AV player. But I am pretty confident that the collection of all players with 16AV played better, as an entire group, than the collection of all players with 14AV."

FREE AGENT HISTORY

The Athletic went back to the 2020 offseason, tracking every free agent signing over the last three years, and calculated the exact cash amount that every NFL franchise has spent on free agents in that period.

Furthermore, they then used the combined AV of every player signed to determine which teams added the most value on the open market, and which teams have been getting the most bang for their buck.

The Tennessee Titans ranked 14th in free agent cash spent ($‎104,659,928), and unsurprisingly dead last (32nd) in "Average Value Added per Million" with 0.497.

In the final three years of Jon Robinson, the Titans were unequivocally the worst team in the sport at adding value for an affordable price in free agency. The contracts given to Vic Beasley, who made $9.5 million to play just eight games in Tennessee, and Bud Dupree, who made almost $34 million for 22 games played, highlight the Titans' big free agent misses.

Tennessee also paid Jadeveon Clowney $13 million in 2020 for eight games and just three AV.

Combining these with a few botched picks in the early rounds of the NFL Draft, and it's not difficult to see why the Titans' competitive window was cut so short (or why Robinson was let go in December).

RAN CARTHON

By now you might be wondering where Ran Carthon fits into all of this and how these numbers are supposed to comfort Titans fans in 2023.

Well, one of Carthon's main responsibilities as the Director of Pro/Player Personnel in San Francisco was evaluating the upcoming free agent class and bringing players he viewed as a fit for the Niners to the attention of GM John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan. Here's a quote from Carthon during his time in the Bay Area.

"In pro scouting, we’re in charge of the daily maintenance of the waiver wire, which is every player that’s cut and brought on the street," said Carthon of is role back in 2019. "So, we look at that and determine if those guys have a fit and role for the Niners. We also do the week-to-week scouting reports during the season that we meet with the coaches on to help prep for upcoming opponents and we also do the free agency process for free agents that are in the league. I evaluate each and every one of those players, and bring them to the attention of our GM and head coach."

With Carthon overseeing these operations from 2020-2022, the San Francisco 49ers ranked second in the NFL in "Average Value Added per Million" with 1.301.

While Titans players have been good for just 52 AV, 49ers free agents have contributed 68 approximate value over the last three seasons, all while spending just $‎52,249,442. That's significantly more production from free agents for less than half of the cost.

Ran might not have much to work with this offseason, but if anybody knows how to find the value in the depths of free agency, it's him.

San Francisco paid veteran center Alex Mack $5.5 million in 2021 for one incredible year of production. Mack started all 17 games and played every single offensive snap for the 2021 Niners, later being named to the Pro Bowl.

Defensive end Arden Key had a career-high 6.5 sacks for San Francisco in 2021 after being signed by the team on a one-year contract worth just over $1 million.

Frankly, the list of contributing players that the 49ers signed for pennies on the dollar while Carthon was with the organization goes on and on. It's one of the biggest reasons for San Francisco's sustained success as one of the NFC's elite teams.

Perhaps Titans fans everywhere need to sit back, trust the data, and let Ran Carthon go to work. His track record speaks for itself. The situation Carthon inherited from the Robinson-era Titans is an ugly one, and it's likely going to take more than one offseason to fix the problems entirely.

Just because the Titans aren't making big, splashy moves right now does not mean that Tennessee won't fill their roster holes in other cost effective ways. And former Titans players landing with other organizations does not prohibit the team from replacing their production at a better price point.

Image via George Walker IV / Tennessean.com-USA TODAY NETWORK