The 2026 NFL Draft outlook for Ohio State safety Caleb Downs is a lot more heavily debated than most realize
Is Ohio State safety Caleb Downs really worth a top ten pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
The 2026 NFL Draft cycle is close to starting, and everyone is beginning to familiarize themselves with the top prospects. One prospect who will be one of the most widely recognized as a top player in the class is the uber-talented safety Caleb Downs from Ohio State.
Downs absolutely has the talent of a first-round safety, as he was the heartbeat of one of the best defenses in the country. However, he’s already turning into potentially the most highly debated prospect in the class.
That debate stems from two key issues. The first being if it’s worth drafting a safety in the top 10, a position that typically goes much later in the draft due to positional value. The other being is he special enough of a prospect to defy that unwritten rule of where safeties should be picked.
To help settle this debate, Ryan Roberts and I discussed where we stood on whether Downs should go early in the 2026 NFL Draft. And the results were unexpected. We also discussed this on our latest podcast episode, but we extrapolated further below.
Is Caleb Downs worthy of a top 10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
Joe DeLeone: Yes
After watching Downs this summer, I was left wanting a lot more. Many media draft experts regarded him as a no-brainer elite prospect, but I didn’t come away feeling that. I was intrigued by his athletic tools, but a bit perplexed by how he was being projected when his defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles, was using him so heavily in the middle of the box as a pseudo MIKE linebacker.
He had the athletic traits and physical tools of a free safety, but was being used in a very unique role. To Downs’ credit, he dominated in that role, but it wasn’t something he’d be doing in the NFL. There was no way to really tell how he’d cover from depth and play over the top of a defense without straight-up guessing.
Thankfully, my wishes to see more from Downs were granted when Knowles left, and former NFL defensive coordinator Matt Patricia stepped in. And boy, was I blown away.
The coupling of instincts and burst absolutely makes him a top ten pick. His film is loaded with plays in which he reacts before plays happen, and he’s in a position to make a play immediately. At the same time, he may not be a 4.3 burner; his long speed and burst are high enough to display range and cover ground quickly.
The most impressive aspect of his game, besides his instincts, is his unexpected play strength. Despite not being a hulking presence, he lays big hits on ball carriers, goes toe-to-toe with blockers well, and displays an ability to stick with tight ends.
Simply put, I’d take Downs in the Top 10 because I know I’m getting a guy who will immediately improve my defense and set the tone. He can absolutely become one of the top safeties in the NFL.
Ryan Roberts: No
In the same breath, we should be able to say that Caleb Downs is a very good player, but still admit to ourselves that the role he plays and impact he has shouldn’t be a top 10 pick. Safety is a position that tends to fall down the board, and if you are going to be considered that high, you need to be a generational prospect. Downs isn’t that.
Downs, who is on the smaller side, does his best work playing downhill. He is an outstanding player with tremendous instincts. He has the knack for always being in the right spot, which flashes when playing short zone coverage. That is a role that Downs is almost exclusively asked to play.
To be a safety that goes inside the top ten, you need to have special upside in the passing game. Downs is a negator when playing from depth, but rarely makes any truly impactful plays. Without the ball production and ability to create game-changing moments, there is a cap on the upside that he brings to the table. It is the floor that mostly gets you excited, which is great, but shouldn’t be drafted inside the top ten.
There’s a close resemblance between Downs’ game and Budda Baker. Most would say that Baker is a very good football player, which he is, but are you taking an undersized downhill safety with limited ball production inside of the top 10? Would you take a Budda Baker that high? Those are the questions you need to ask yourself.
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