Predicting what actually happens in the NFL Draft can feel impossible. There are always a ton of last-minute moves and trades that seem to shake up the entire draft board. There are just so many things that change quickly this time of year (especially right now in NFL Free Agency). It can be even more difficult for just one individual NFL mock draft to tell us very much at all since in reality it’s just one data point in a vast sea of constantly flowing information.

Surprisingly though, large-sample mock draft data does a pretty great job predicting the future. And that’s exactly what we’re going to try and do in this article. Using all of the latest mock draft data from our team at A to Z Sports, we built probability distributions for the Top 100 prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft (as you can see in the post below). What does this mean exactly? And where will all these prospects likely be drafted given what we know today? Let’s dive in.

Here are the current @AtoZSportsNFL 2026 #NFLDraft Top 100 Prospect Projections as of today.

The uncertainty and lack of consensus outside of the top handful of names this year is extreme. pic.twitter.com/HI2Ph2zkp4

— Travis May (@FF_TravisM) March 9, 2026

Before jumping into all the top players in the graphic above, a few quick helpful notes if you care about the why, what, and how of this all.

• The “early” projection for each player is near their ceiling, but they could certainly be selected before that mark (especially QBs who are often reached for heavily).
• The “median” is in many cases quite different from the player’s overall rank, especially after pick 14. This speaks to the lack of certainty in any one player being selected at a specific pick slot that begins to emerge in the 2026 NFL Draft class after the few elite prospects are off the board.
• Just like the “early” projection, the “late” mark is somewhere near the floor for a prospect to be selected.
• These probability distributions aren’t perfect, but they likely account for about 90% of possible outcomes for each player given what we know today. Statistical curve-fitting and distribution-building methods were used to get these as accurate as we can with less than two months until the big day.

Safe First-Round 2026 NFL Draft Projections

1. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (Early 1, Mid 1, Late 3)
2. Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State (Early 1, Mid 2, Late 8)
3. David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech (Early 1, Mid 3, Late 9)
4. Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami (FL) (Early 2, Mid 5, Late 9)
5. Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami (FL) (Early 2, Mid 5, Late 9)
6. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame (Early 3, Mid 8, Late 12)
7. Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State (Early 3, Mid 8, Late 16)
8. Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State (Early 4, Mid 9, Late 18)
9. Spencer Fano, OT, Utah (Early 5, Mid 11, Late 21)
10. Sonny Styles Jr., LB, Ohio State (Early 6, Mid 11, Late 21)
11. Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State (Early 6, Mid 11, Late 21)
12. Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU (Early 7, Mid 14, Late 25)
13. Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee (Early 7, Mid 14, Late 25)
14. Makai Lemon, WR, USC (Early 7, Mid 16, Late 29)

Fernando Mendoza (QB, Indiana) to the Las Vegas Raiders with the first overall pick is the only true safe bet in the 2026 NFL Draft. After that big boards begin to diverge depending on who you talk with around the NFL.

Our A to Z Sports NFL Draft team on-site at the NFL Combine continually heard that Jeremiyah Love could go as high as pick three or four overall, but the mock draft data and team needs suggest otherwise. However, this entire first tier of 14 players consistently rated as safe first-round prospects according to virtually everyone we spoke to in Indianapolis (and afterwards).

The only true question marks in this tier with any shot of falling out of the first round this year are Jermod McCoy and Makai Lemon. McCoy’s agent continues to rub NFL decision makers the wrong way, but his 2024 tape prior to the injury is still elite. It’s odd he didn’t work out at the NFL Combine considering he’s supposedly completely healthy, but he still likely goes in the middle of the first round. Lemon had some mixed reviews from his podium time, on-field drills (not following directions?), and from sources at the NFL Combine, but his talent is still absurd. He won the Biletnikoff Award and led all power conference wide receivers in receiving yards through the end of the regular season. If NFL teams overthink him for a minute, that’s likely a bad idea.

Everyone else in this tier continues to check every single box that suggests they’re elite future NFL talents. Rueben Bain’s arms are short, and there was some unfounded buzz about Caleb Downs’ health (proved to be nothing), but beyond that this is the cream of the crop in the 2026 NFL Draft. All of them have gone inside the first round in 100% of A to Z Sports mock drafts since the start of 2026 for good reason.

Likely First Round 2026 NFL Draft Projections

15. Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn (Early 8, Mid 19, Late 34)
16. Peter Woods, DT, Clemson (Early 9, Mid 20, Late 35)
17. Olaivavega Ioane, IOL, Penn State (Early 9, Mid 21, Late 37)
18. Caleb Banks, DT, Florida (Early 9, Mid 23, Late 39)
19. Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon (Early 9, Mid 23, Late 40)
20. Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson (Early 10, Mid 25, Late 42)
21. Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia (Early 10, Mid 25, Late 42)
22. KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M (Early 11, Mid 27, Late 46)
23. Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (Early 12, Mid 28, Late 46)
24. Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah (Early 12, Mid 29, Late 48)
25. CJ Allen, LB, Georgia (Early 12, Mid 29, Late 48)
26. Denzel Boston, WR, Washington (Early 13, Mid 30, Late 49)
27. Cashius Howell, EDGE, Texas A&M (Early 13, Mid 30, Late 50)
28. Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State (Early 14, Mid 32, Late 52)

This is where NFL Draft boards begin to diverge on top prospects. This tier is still extremely talented, but there are questions with many of them.

Keldric Faulk and Peter Woods have great first-round traits, but lacked significant production in 2025. Caleb Banks was injured for the vast majority of his final season after doubling positional expectation for pass-rush pressure rate in 2024 (among all primarily B-gap defensive tackles).

Ty Simpson played like a field general, first-overall pick candidate for half of last season for Alabama, but then got dinged up against South Carolina and dropped off consistently.

CJ Allen isn’t a truly elite athlete compared to most typical first-round linebackers, but is certainly a phenomenal leader with intelligence and instincts.

Cashius Howell has extremely short arms, but undeniable production and burst for his build. Avieon Terrell is built like a slot corner, but plays almost exclusively outside.

Each and every one of these players is special, and deserving of first round consideration. They just aren’t locks for it this year. The safest bets in this tier are likely Kenyon Sadiq (TE, Oregon) and the offensive linemen: Monroe Freeling, Olaivavega Ioane, and Caleb Lomu. Freeling is the fastest rising offensive lineman in mock draft data since January. Ioane and Lomu have been known first-round talents for over a year. Sadiq tested out as a 100th percentile athlete among tight ends, so he’ll likely be a first. It’s just tough to find the exact fit where a team will select him versus a major position of need.

Safe Top 64 NFL Draft Projections

29. Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama (Early 15, Mid 34, Late 56)
30. Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon (Early 16, Mid 35, Late 57)
31. Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee (Early 17, Mid 36, Late 59)
32. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo (Early 17, Mid 37, Late 61)
33. Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, Miami (FL) (Early 18, Mid 39, Late 63)
34. Brandon Cisse, CB, South Carolina (Early 19, Mid 40, Late 64)

This is the tipping point in the 2026 NFL Draft class. This small group marks a unique tier of player with high upside that could find their way into the first round, but for perhaps one reason could fall into the second round. After this group, major questions and/or significant disagreement on prospects begins after this bunch.

Kadyn Proctor was a bit heavy-footed for much of his career with Alabama, so he still has split reviews, but his 6-7, 360-pound frame has plenty interested.

Dillon Thieneman would be a slam-dunk first-round prospect if he didn’t play safety, but it’s always hard to tell how far the NFL is going to let that position fall. Especially when the best safety in the class is likely to go in the first round already.

Colton Hood and Akheem Mesidor have one real elite season of play with little else that suggests they’re first-round prospects outside of 2025 (although they both look like they fit the bill now). Emmanuel McNeil-Warren is the wildcard of the bunch given his competition questions at Toledo, but his film certainly screams first round ability.

This crew has been going inside the first between about 30% and 55% of the time in A to Z Sports mock drafts since January. Obviously talented, but definitely some disagreement here.

Safe Top 100 NFL Draft Projections

35. T.J. Parker, EDGE, Clemson (Early 19, Mid 40, Late 65)
36. Chris Bell, WR, Louisville (Early 19, Mid 40, Late 65)
37. R Mason Thomas, EDGE, Oklahoma (Early 20, Mid 41, Late 66)
38. Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State (Early 20, Mid 42, Late 68)
39. Keith Abney, CB, Arizona State (Early 21, Mid 43, Late 69)
40. Emmanuel Pregnon, IOL, Oregon (Early 21, Mid 43, Late 70)
41. Lee Hunter, DT, Texas Tech (Early 22, Mid 44, Late 72)
42. Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana (Early 22, Mid 45, Late 73)
43. Zion Young, EDGE, Missouri (Early 22, Mid 46, Late 73)
44. Christen Miller, DT, Georgia (Early 23, Mid 46, Late 74)
45. Blake Miller, OT, Clemson (Early 23, Mid 46, Late 75)
46. Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State (Early 24, Mid 48, Late 77)
47. Gennings Dunker, OT, Iowa (Early 24, Mid 48, Late 77)
48. Chase Bisontis, IOL, Texas A&M (Early 25, Mid 49, Late 79)
49. Chris Brazzell, WR, Tennessee (Early 26, Mid 52, Late 84)
50. Anthony Hill Jr., LB, Texas (Early 27, Mid 54, Late 86)
51. D’Angelo Ponds, CB, Indiana (Early 28, Mid 55, Late 87)
52. Gabe Jacas, EDGE, Illinois (Early 30, Mid 58, Late 92)
53. Elijah Sarratt, WR, Indiana (Early 30, Mid 59, Late 93)
54. Connor Lew, IOL, Auburn (Early 30, Mid 59, Late 94)
55. Germie Bernard, WR, Alabama (Early 32, Mid 61, Late 97)
56. Jake Golday, LB, Cincinnati (Early 32, Mid 62, Late 98)
57. Kamari Ramsey, S, USC (Early 32, Mid 62, Late 99)
58. Domonique Orange, DT, Iowa State (Early 33, Mid 63, Late 100)
59. Romello Height, EDGE, Texas Tech (Early 33, Mid 63, Late 100)
60. LT Overton, EDGE, Alabama (Early 33, Mid 64, Late 100)
61. Eli Stowers, TE, Vanderbilt (Early 34, Mid 65, Late 102)
62. Jonah Coleman, RB, Washington (Early 35, Mid 66, Late 104)
63. AJ Haulcy, S, LSU (Early 35, Mid 66, Late 104)
64. Josiah Trotter, LB, Missouri (Early 35, Mid 67, Late 105)
65. Max Klare, TE, Ohio State (Early 35, Mid 67, Late 106)
66. Will Lee III, CB, Texas A&M (Early 38, Mid 72, Late 113)
67. Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame (Early 38, Mid 72, Late 113)

This is where “pick your flavor” begins in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Does your favorite NFL team value freak athleticism? Eli Stowers (TE, Vanderbilt), Max Iheanachor (OT, Arizona State), and D’Angelo Ponds (CB, Indiana) tested out as 97th percentile athletes at their position or better.

Do you think your team likes a certain brand of pass rusher? Try on T.J. Parker’s long-arm, R Mason Thomas’ elite first step, or Zion Young’s otherworldly strength to control the line of scrimmage.

Think your team takes a shot on upside regardless of injury issues or one glaring profile issue? Chris Bell (WR, Louisville) looks like and A.J. Brown-type wide receiver. Connor Lew can play anywhere in the interior, but is likely the best center of the class when healthy. Lee Hunter might have tested poorly at the NFL Combine, but he plays like a much more explosive athlete when the game begins.

All of the players in this tier have average draft positions inside pick 70 and virtually always go inside the first 100 picks of long-form mock drafts. Yes, there are some profile holes in most of them. There’s definitely a wide variety of experiences and positional archetypes in this bunch. That’s what makes this part of the draft extremely intriguing this year. When A to Z Sports talks with scouts and staff around the league, the rankings and sentiment are all over the place (in terms of exact order), but the grades are close.

Possible Top 100 NFL Draft Projections

68. Zachariah Branch, WR, Georgia (Early 40, Mid 76, Late 118)
69. Julian Neal, CB, Arkansas (Early 41, Mid 76, Late 119)
70. Dani Dennis-Sutton, EDGE, Penn State (Early 41, Mid 76, Late 119)
71. Antonio Williams, WR, Clemson (Early 41, Mid 77, Late 121)
72. Malachi Fields, WR, Notre Dame (Early 42, Mid 78, Late 123)
73. Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech (Early 42, Mid 79, Late 123)
74. Caleb Tiernan, OT, Northwestern (Early 42, Mid 79, Late 124)
75. Derrick Moore, EDGE, Michigan (Early 42, Mid 79, Late 124)
76. Isaiah World, OT, Oregon (Early 43, Mid 79, Late 124)
77. Jake Slaughter, IOL, Florida (Early 43, Mid 80, Late 125)
78. Keionte Scott, CB, Miami (FL) (Early 44, Mid 81, Late 127)
79. Genesis Smith, S, Arizona (Early 44, Mid 82, Late 127)
80. Davison Igbinosun, CB, Ohio State (Early 44, Mid 82, Late 128)
81. Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU (Early 44, Mid 82, Late 129)
82. Joshua Josephs, EDGE, Tennessee (Early 45, Mid 83, Late 129)
83. Darrell Jackson Jr., DT, Florida State (Early 46, Mid 84, Late 131)
84. Deion Burks, WR, Oklahoma (Early 46, Mid 84, Late 132)
85. Dontay Corleone, DT, Cincinnati (Early 46, Mid 85, Late 133)
86. Treydan Stukes, S, Arizona (Early 47, Mid 86, Late 134)
87. Devin Moore, CB, Florida (Early 47, Mid 86, Late 135)
88. Michael Trigg, TE, Baylor (Early 47, Mid 87, Late 135)
89. Ted Hurst, WR, Georgia State (Early 47, Mid 87, Late 135)
90. Skyler Bell, WR, UConn (Early 48, Mid 88, Late 137)
91. Gracen Halton, DT, Oklahoma (Early 48, Mid 89, Late 139)
92. Ja’Kobi Lane, WR, USC (Early 49, Mid 90, Late 139)
93. Emmett Johnson, RB, Nebraska (Early 49, Mid 90, Late 140)
94. Dametrious Crownover, OT, Texas A&M (Early 49, Mid 90, Late 140)
95. Daylen Everette, CB, Georgia (Early 50, Mid 91, Late 141)
96. Malachi Lawrence, EDGE, UCF (Early 50, Mid 91, Late 142)
97. Zakee Wheatley, S, Penn State (Early 50, Mid 91, Late 142)
98. Harold Perkins Jr., LB, LSU (Early 50, Mid 92, Late 144)
99. Brenen Thompson, WR, Mississippi State (Early 51, Mid 93, Late 144)
100. Drew Allar, QB, Penn State (Early 51, Mid 93, Late 144)

In most NFL Draft classes, the best predictive modeling can typically project around 85 of the first 100 names who come off the board, but the 2026 class might not play out that way. League sources are truly divided on the majority of this group when it comes to one or two key profile issues.

Gracen Halton (DT, Oklahoma) plays like a Top 50 player, but has third percentile arm length and other size questions. Drew Allar was supposed to become a first round NFL Draft prospect at quarterback, but never put it all together at Penn State and missed a ton of time last fall. Where does Harold Perkins even play at the NFL level given his hybrid edge rusher, off-ball linebacker capabilities? Deion Burks and Brenen Thompson are ridiculously explosive wide receivers who both with 4.3-second (or better) forty-yard dash times, but they’re also extremely undersized. Isaiah World (OT, Oregon) and Dontay Corleone (DT, Cincinnati) both have (very different) significant health concerns. Davison Igbinosun (CB, Ohio State) is one year removed from being one of the most penalized players in all of football.

The talent in this bunch is clear, but the grades are inconsistent from those in the league, and frankly the list of questions on most of these profiles begins to get a little longer.

Based on recent mock draft data since January, the floor on this group spans from about pick 120 to nearly 150, meaning many of these players likely don’t make the actual Top 100. The same can essentially be said for the next 30 or 40 players after this group too. The NFL Draft may be decently predictable most years, but based on mock draft data this spring it’s looking a bit more difficult than usual.

We’ll be back with more NFL Draft coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news.