Evaluating NFL Draft prospects is a constant exercise in humility. The best scouts cling to their hits and study their misses, using each failed evaluation as a chance to sharpen the process. No evaluator or scout is ever done learning the constantly evolving game of football.

The sport demands that evolution.

Over the years, I’ve had my fair share of misses at several positions, from wide receiver to quarterback to edge rusher to safety. Each one taught me something different about what separates good scouting from great scouting, and I wanted to walk through them here. The first class that I evaluated was the 2012 NFL Draft class, although I was nothing more than an amateur at that point.

Here are my biggest draft misses over the years. And the most important lessons that were learned because of them.

The wide receiver misses: Jerry Jeudy (Alabama) and Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State)

Two wide receiver misses stand out, and they represent opposite ends of the evaluation spectrum.

When Jerry Jeudy was coming out of Alabama in the 2020 NFL Draft, I was enamored with his route-running ability, his sleekness, his explosiveness. He was the ultimate separator.

What I didn’t value enough at the time was the ability to play through contact and win in tighter quarters. At the NFL level, coverage gets tighter. Defensive backs get bigger, faster, and stronger. Whether you’re a slot receiver or an outside weapon, you need to win through contact, either in crowds to the middle of the field, or in 1-on-1 situations.

Jeudy hasn’t been able to do that consistently enough. He’s had one 1,000-yard season with the Cleveland Browns, capitalizing on being the top option in that room, but otherwise the production has been a letdown. That miss taught me to prioritize contested-catch ability (both in crowds and at the catch point), and physicality at the catch point far more than I did early in my evaluation career.

Justin Blackmon was the polar opposite back in the 2012 NFL Draft. The Oklahoma State receiver was physical, great after the catch, and could win in those contested situations. The problem with Blackmon was off-field demons and a lack of genuine love for football. That represents the biggest gap in modern independent scouting.

I do as much homework as I can, talking to scouting sources around the league, reaching out to people at schools, and interviewing players individually to understand who they are, where they come from, what makes them tick, and how much they love the game. Unfortunately, that information isn’t always available, and sometimes the information you get isn’t the full story.

Blackmon is proof that talent alone isn’t enough. You need to love the work, especially as you make the jump to the next level.

The EDGE rusher miss: Derek Barnett (Tennessee)

Derek Barnett came out of the University of Tennessee as one of the more productive pass rushers in the 2017 NFL Draft class. I was excited about his great hands, his pass rush plan, his counter moves. He seemingly had everything from a technical perspective. He became one of my earlier lessons on valuing athletic skill sets at the EDGE position.

There are positions where testing numbers and raw athleticism can be overstated, but EDGE is not one of them. To be a high-end volume sack producer at the NFL level, barring one or two outliers, you need to be a physical freak. Think about Myles Garrett, Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter. They’re routinely up there in sack totals and disruption numbers because they have that dynamite first step and the ability to corner at an elite level.

When Barnett went in the top 15 of that draft, I thought the Philadelphia Eagles made a great pick. While he was a solid NFL player, he was never the difference-maker I projected because he was all nuance and not enough physical talent to reach that tier.

The quarterback unicorn: Josh Allen (Wyoming)

Perhaps the biggest miss of my scouting career (like many) is Josh Allen coming out of Wyoming in the 2018 NFL Draft. A 6-5, 240-pound quarterback with a rocket arm and very good athleticism, the allure was easy to understand. He was also one of the most inaccurate quarterbacks I can remember coming out of college, at least that I can remember.

In most instances, accuracy doesn’t improve dramatically. It can get incrementally better with tighter footwork and better coaching, but the leap from what Allen was at Wyoming to what he is now was unfathomable at the time.

Allen is an outlier, but he’s an outlier who fell into the right situation with a great private quarterback coach in Jordan Palmer and a strong infrastructure in Buffalo.

If Allen had landed with an organization like the New York Jets, I’m not sure he would have become the player he is today, but that is just further proof of how vital situation is, especially for young quarterbacks. That experience taught me to factor in developmental situations more heavily.

You can’t swing too far in that direction, however, because that leads you to buying too much into the Anthony Richardsons of the world. Allen is a unicorn in that regard. But he’s an important sample of how a player can succeed despite looking like a doomed prospect coming out of a lower level.

The safety lesson: Calen Bullock (USC)

Calen Bullock, the safety out of USC drafted by the Houston Texans in the 2024 NFL Draft, was a player I did not like. Great ball skills, impressive range, longer frame, but he was allergic to tackling with the Trojans. He’s still not a great tackler.

What I’ve learned is that in certain systems with certain coaches, I’m willing to look past some deficiencies depending on where a player lands. Houston uses Bullock as a true middle-of-the-field safety who plays from depth and doesn’t get heavily involved in box run defense. That scheme fit should have calmed my concerns. For true free safety types with elite range who aren’t good tacklers, the right situation can make it work.

Every miss carries a lesson. The key is making sure the next evaluation is sharper because of it.