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What if the NFL held another expansion draft? A glimpse at what a 33rd team would look like

In Thursday’s newsletter, we discussed how it’s only a matter of time before the NFL adds more teams. When that happens, an expansion draft will be imminent.

Our guy Wendell Ferreira followed up that discussion by putting together a series of articles showing what a hypothetical 33rd team would have looked like heading into the 2025 season. He created a front office for the team, had them participate in the 2025 NFL Draft and free agency, and, finally, put together an expansion draft for the new team.

The hypothetical team’s name? The St. Louis Arches.

Let’s take a look at what Wendell’s new team would look like in this intriguing scenario.

Front office and coaching staff

General manager: “The general manager choice is Reggie McKenzie, currently the Tennessee Titans vice president of football advisor. Will McClay would be the perfect option, but he has passed several opportunities to stay with the Dallas Cowboys.

“McKenzie worked in the Green Bay Packers front office for almost two decades, which will be important later on. He also spent seven seasons (2012-2018) as the Oakland Raiders general manager. If you look at what the Raiders had done before McKenzie and what they've done after him, it's easy to see how successful he was.”

Head coach: “Mike McCarthy is the perfect option here as a head coach. I know it's easy to say he was a product of Aaron Rodgers with the Green Bay Packers, and the final years of his tenure there were complicated, but McCarthy helped reshape the franchise and was instrumental to Rodgers' development — have you watched his tape from the 2005 preseason?

“Then McCarthy went to the Cowboys and yes, had some shortcomings in the playoffs, but that's more on the front office. Dallas had two 12-win seasons between 2008 and 2019, and three of them in five years under McCarthy. McCarthy might not offer a high ceiling, but he gives an expansion team the floor of competence it needs.”

2025 NFL Draft

This exercise inserts the Arches into the 2025 draft, giving them the first overall pick instead of the Tennessee Titans. There’s a precedent for this, according to Wendell: “In the NFL, expansion teams traditionally have the first overall pick — that allowed the Cleveland Browns to take Tim Couch in 1999 and the Houston Texans to select David Carr in 2002.”

Naturally, the Arches would select Miami quarterback Cam Ward. Here’s the full hypothetical draft for the Arches:

• First round, pick 1: QB Cam Ward, Miami
• Second round, pick 33: OL Jonah Savaiinaea, Arizona
• Third round, pick 65: CB Azereye'h Thomas, Florida State
• Fourth round, pick 103: WR Dont'e Thornton, Tennessee
• Fifth round, pick 139: EDGE Bradyn Swinson, LSU
• Sixth round, pick 177: T Chase Lundt, UConn
• Seventh round, pick 217: RB Damien Martinez, Miami

2025 free agency

Wendell went back in time to the start of 2025 free agency and had the Arches build their squad with plenty of notable players. Here are a few standouts:

CB D.J. Reed ($18 million): “It’s hard to find cornerbacks available, and even non-elite players at the position get big deals in free agency. Paulson Adebo was a consideration here, but Reed has been better (even if a little bit older) and is cheaper. His flexibility to play inside and outside also helps a new roster.”

T Cam Robinson ($14 million): “After the Texans killed David Carr early in his career, the main priority for the Arches was to build a playable offensive line for Cam Ward. Robinson isn’t a star, but he is a solid starter who would provide stability for the offensive line.”

LB Dre Greenlaw ($12.5 million): “This signing is about attitude. Ideally, teams wouldn’t spend a lot on the off-ball linebacker position, but the Arches have a lot to spend anyway and they needed as much talent as possible. Greenlaw also brings energy to the defense.”

S Justin Reid ($12.5 million): “Top safeties are making a lot of money these days, so getting Reid for this amount seemed like a great deal.”

WR Josh Palmer ($11.6 million): “It was impossible to find great wide receivers via any avenue — expansion draft, regular draft, free agency. Maybe a trade could be a possibility here, but we didn’t go that far. Meanwhile, Palmer would be a capable X receiver for a reasonable price tag.”

EDGEs Za'Darius Smith ($11.5 million) and Jadeveon Clowney ($10 million): “These are the two biggest bets of the process. The Arches were able to add some strong depth pieces at the edge position, but Smith and Clowney bring star power in their respective areas — Za’Darius as a pass rusher, and Jadeveon as an elite run stopper. They would have a clear path to start for a decent cost.”

Expansion draft

In Wendell’s expansion draft, there are a few important rules:

• Each NFL team leaves 12 players unprotected.
• ⁠Players with 0-1 accrued seasons and players with no-trade clauses are automatically protected.
• ⁠Players taken have their future salaries and signing bonus prorations absorbed by the expansion team.
• Teams can't withdraw a player after another one has been selected.
• ⁠The expansion team gets a maximum of two players from each team, and a maximum of 40 players total.

With that in mind, here are some notable names the Arches scooped up:

QB Kirk Cousins: “With the first pick in the regular draft, the Arches knew they would take Cam Ward. They could have taken a quarterback like Tyrod Taylor to be the backup in the expansion draft. However, when Cousins got available, we saw an opportunity to generate extra draft capital in the future. It’s tough to absorb not only Cousins’ salary, but also his prorated signing bonus hit, but there’s a realistic scenario where the expansion team could get a high pick in 2025 or next year by trading Cousins to a quarterback-needy team. The competent veteran would also give Mike McCarthy and his coaching staff an option to start if they feel like Ward needs some time.“

DT D.J. Reader: “It’s a relatively high cap hit ($12.933 million), but that’s actually not that significant considering the current defensive tackle market. In this stage of the franchise, it’s hard to acquire real talent, and Reader was probably the best player available.“

WRs Skyy Moore, Treylon Burks, Sterling Shepard, Allen Lazard: “Believe it or not, no position was harder to address with top talent than wide receiver. There weren’t great options in the expansion draft and free agency, and the options early in the second round felt like reaches at that point. So the team was forced to bet on talent that hasn’t panned out in the NFL yet.“

Full roster

Overall, the St. Louis Arches were able to snag a surprisingly talented ragtag group of players. The team probably wouldn’t be a Super Bowl contender in year one, but it built a solid enough foundation that fielding a fringe playoff contender wouldn’t necessarily be out of the question, despite history showing that expansion teams don’t do well in their first year.

Here’s Wendell’s final analysis of the Arches’ roster:

Offense: “[It] didn't get as strong as you would hope for, especially the wide receiver room, and there weren't great options in any avenue. What could have been done differently? Take a receiver instead of an offensive lineman in the second round, but the options felt like reaches at that point. Moreover, the priority was to protect Cam Ward, and the offensive line is pretty decent.”

Defense: “[It’s] spicy with the additions of Za'Darius Smith and Jadeveon Clowney to the edge room, plus some great interior options from the expansion draft. It was more realistic to get good defensive backs and linebackers in free agency, and most of the spending went there. Special teams had good options as well.”

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