The Atlanta Falcons have a Bijan Robinson problem, and it’s one entirely of their own making.

ESPN’s annual ranking of NFL running backs, informed by league executives, coaches, and scouts, ranked Robinson No. 1 entering 2026. He narrowly edged out Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs for the top spot. The timing could not be more awkward for Atlanta, which has already committed massive guaranteed money to WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts this offseason while leaving its most productive offensive weapon without an extension.

The Falcons handed out a 4-year, $141.5 million contract to London and a 3-year, $54 million deal to Pitts. The contracts include more than $136 million in combined guaranteed money to two pass catchers. Meanwhile, Robinson enters the back half of his rookie deal at bargain-rate terms: a $6.987 million cap hit in 2026 and a $11.323 million fifth-year option in 2027.

The league just told Robinson he’s the best at his position. Now, the Falcons have to decide whether to reset the running back market with limited cap space remaining.

Can Atlanta afford to pay Robinson what he’s worth?

Atlanta’s estimated salary cap space sits around $28 million after the London and Pitts extensions. The current running back market sets a clear benchmark. Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley holds the highest average annual value at $20.6 million. San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey follows at $19 million, then Miami Dolphins RB De’Von Achane at $16 million, and Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry at $15 million.

Robinson will want to top Barkley’s $20.6 million. An ask of $25 million AAV wouldn’t be out of the question for a player considered the league’s top RB. The question is whether the Falcons roster can structure and handle that kind of commitment at running back after already investing so heavily at receiver and tight end.

On paper, Robinson, London, and Pitts form an elite trio of playmakers with top-tier individual production at each position group. Committing money to all three is a win-now move. Whether Atlanta is actually a contender, particularly given its quarterback situation, is a separate and important question.

Robinson’s production backs up the price tag

Robinson’s 2025 numbers speak for themselves. His 287 carries ranked fifth in the league, 1,478 rushing yards ranked fourth, and 5.2 yards per carry ranked fifth. He added seven rushing touchdowns and four receiving touchdowns for 11 total scores. He logged 366 touches with heavy usage across the 2023-2025 seasons.

That workload cuts both ways. Robinson is very clearly the engine of Atlanta’s offense, but it also raises the question of whether the Falcons should hesitate to guarantee big money to a back who has already absorbed a ton of touches and hits at just 24 years old.

The Saquon Barkley cautionary tale looms large

The big fear around waiting is reminiscent of the Barkley saga in New York. The Giants slow-walked their best offensive weapon and prioritized other spending. They eventually watched him leave and go on to win a Super Bowl with division rival Philadelphia. Atlanta has more control over Robinson’s contract than the Giants did over Barkley’s at the end, but the cautionary tale of treating your most productive skill player as the last domino is right there in front of them.

The running back market is booming. Kansas City Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker received a significant contract in free agency. Achane signed an extension in Miami. New York Jets running back Breece Hall landed a 3-year, $45.75 million extension. Waiting for a player like Jahmyr Gibbs or Jonathan Taylor to sign could push the price tag even higher, putting the Falcons in a bind.

The earlier Atlanta gets a deal done, the more likely the contract looks favorable down the road. Many players who sign extensions don’t see the new money kick in until after the fifth-year option. The same would likely apply to Robinson. Signing him now would provide the security he needs to know he’s a long-term fit in Atlanta, while locking in a number before the market climbs further. The Falcons have the contract control. The question is whether they have the conviction to use it.