Bengals free agency predictions: Who stays and who goes
Predicting which Bengals free agents are re-signed or sign elsewhere.
It's the calm before the storm. But it might still be calm in a few days for the Cincinnati Bengals.
NFL free agency begins next week with the legal tampering period starting Monday at 12:00 pm EST. Last year, the Bengals made the very first move at 12:01 by signing free agent guard Alex Cappa to the most lucrative offensive line contract in franchise history.
That probably won't happen again this year.
The pre-Zac Taylor days inside 1 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH used to feature extended waiting periods before the front office would dip their toes into the free agency waters. There was no Amazon Prime delivery, you had to wait 5-7 business days at minimum for any move to be made.
That's all in the past, but this year may not look too different on the surface.
Free agency is usually a linear process. The top guys go off the board in a flurry, while the mid-tier talents have to wait their turn. It doesn't always go down that way, and that may be how the Bengals get involved in the first wave. Targeting second and third-tier players while the most notable veterans are simultaneously agreeing to market-resetting deals.
Cincinnati also has new advantages at its disposal: An elite quarterback in a Super Bowl window. It doesn't matter what city the team is in, those two bullet points attract big names looking for one-year ring-hunting contracts. Expect the Bengals to be in pursuit of these guys.
As for their own, it's time to make some predictions. The players are ordered by their snap percentage from last year.
Which Bengals will be re-signed
S Vonn Bell
Everyone can agree Bell is the biggest priority not currently under contract. He may not have the skillset of a rangy centerfielder, but he's got everything else the team desires. If they bend for anyone at the negotiating table, it'll likely be for him.
CB Eli Apple
I've gone back and forth on this so much, and I truly believe if Chidobe Awuzie wasn't recovering from a torn ACL, this wouldn't be a possibility. Because of that variable, there could still be interest from the team to bring Apple back. This should not prevent an early-round cornerback from entering the picture.
TE Mitchell Wilcox
The report of Wilcox not being tendered as a restricted free agent does open the door for him leaving, but I don't think it eliminates him from returning to compete for a spot next year, There's enough to like as a third option on the depth chart.
RB Samaje Perine
This move will coincide with an inevitable decision on Joe Mixon. Cincinnati will gladly give Perine a small boost in salary to be the new veteran leader of the running back room, but not so much that takes them out of drafting a running back to play right away.
CB Tre Flowers
It may not happen immediately, but Flowers fits here well and won't command much elsewhere.
RB Trayveon Williams
Veteran minimum for a young reserve to continue pushing Chris Evans sounds like a plan. Again, Mixon's likely release and an incoming rookie are still expected here.
S Michael Thomas
Like Flowers, this may take a minute. A special teams captain who's pushing his mid-30s is not going to be a hot commodity on the open market, but his spot will still exist here with some change happening at the position.
QB Brandon Allen
They may just draft the same contract he's had for the last two years again. I would not be surprised if they bring in a late-round pick or priority free agent to compete with the 30-year old backup QB.
Which Bengals will leave
S Jessie Bates III
It's just time. The Bengals played this out how they intended, getting five very good years out of a talented free safety. Bates will take an offer from another team and be happy, and the Bengals will be in the mix for a compensatory pick next season
LB Germaine Pratt
When you ball out in a contract year, you deserve to reap the benefits. Pratt will get interest from teams needing difference makers in the second level. The Bengals will wish him well as they move forward with the 2020 draft class trio of Logan Wilson, Akeem Davis-Gaither, and Markus Bailey.
TE Hayden Hurst
The only one who's more of a coin flip than Apple is Hurst. Did he do enough in 2022 to earn a multi-year deal that's out of the Bengals range? Do the Bengals even want to retain him for more than one year? Will a stacked tight end class end up limiting his market? All valid questions of which we don't know the answers, but the feeling of Cincinnati drafting a tight end very early is palpable. That leads me to lean in this direction for Hurst.
WR Trent Taylor
The man has done nothing wrong, but he's not the future at either slot receiver or kick returner. The Bengals will be looking for both this offseason.
TE Drew Sample
I see the logic in bringing Sample back. Instead of being viewed as a second-round pick trying to live up to that billing, he can be a humble reserve with blocking ability. I'm not ruling that out, but I also think they'll be interested in a veteran in free agency. Swapping out Hurst and Sample for a rookie and a newer version of Hurst is how I envision this playing out.
G Max Scharping
It was a good idea claiming Scharping off waivers last year, but he just didn't show enough in his chances to stay in the plans going forward.
LS Clark Harris
If Cal Adomitis struggled as much as Drue Chrisman, this may be a different story. Harris has said he doesn't want to go out on an injury. Maybe that brings him back to training camp eventually.
LB Clay Johnston
Another guy who could find his way back later in the Summer. There's enough already on the roster to enter the draft with, and they'll likely leave with a couple priority free agents and a late-round pick at the position.
CB Chris Lammons
I'm not convinced he wasn't just picked up to prevent the Kansas City Chiefs from bringing him back for the AFC Championship.
RB Elijah Holyfield
Poor dude got injured at the start of last training camp. He's an exclusive rights free agent and they haven't brought him back yet. Might not be in the cards for him.