Experts’ stance on Cowboys vs Giants season opener already has us asking awkward questions about Dallas
Dallas Cowboys fans are high on the team’s roster and coaching overhaul ahead of the 2026 NFL season. But oddsmakers? Not so much, as evident by their stance on the team’s Week 1 matchup.
Think fast: Is the Dallas Cowboys’ Week 1 road showdown versus the New York Giants an easy game?
I’m betting most Cowboys fans reading this article will say yes. History does, too. With Dak Prescott at quarterback, the Cowboys have only one loss to the Giants since 2016 and that was Dak’s first ever NFL game.
But oddsmakers’ stance, which is always worth paying attention to, is that this will be a close matchup. And that raises some awkward questions. Even more so when you factor in win total expectations set on the Cowboys early on.
The Cowboys open as slight favorites vs Giants
If I had to guess when the Week 1 showdown was announced, I would have gone with the Cowboys being four-point road favorites over the Giants. Instead, oddsmakers had the spread open at 1.5 points, and in most places it has now moved to 2.5.
To be fair, home-field advantage is usually priced by oddsmakers at nearly two points. In other words, if this game was played at AT&T Stadium, the Cowboys would likely be favored by 4.5 points.
Even still, it’s a smaller spread than I expected. And in a way, I’m reminded of sportsbooks being significantly lower on last year’s Cowboys than the fanbase. And unfortunately, the latter was the wrong one about the 2025 team.
Spread brings up awkward questions for the Cowboys
Simply put, the spread, combined with the Cowboys’ win total projected at 8.5, is a reminder that so far, all the promising changes coming to the defense exist only on paper.
Christian Parker appears to be a home run hire at defensive coordinator, but how much impact can he have in Year 1? Caleb Downs may be the steal of the first round, but can he play man coverage at nickel (where Dallas intends to play him initially) to succeed against top receivers? Malachi Lawrence has plenty of upside, but what will his snap count look like as a rookie?
These are the questions that will define how much the Cowboys defense improves in 2026. After all, we’re talking about a historically bad unit. Not to mention, concerns exist on offense as well. Can Dallas overcome mediocre pass pro at offensive tackle? When will George Pickens show up?
In my writing, I hate to hit readers with question after question. I think it’s kind of a gimmick. But, that’s kind of the point here.
As excited as we are about many of the changes brewing in Dallas, and I am, it’s only fair to wonder why an objective third party (oddsmakers) view the Cowboys with much more pessimism.
This is far from a perfect team. And with the fourth hardest schedule of the 2026 season, every game is a must win. If you ask the money, not even the Giants will be a walk in the park.