NFL teams with a 3-0 record make the playoffs over 75% of the time. And if you ask me, the Dallas Cowboys open the 2026 NFL season with three very winnable games against the New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, and Washington Commanders. 

In an NFC East where the Philadelphia Eagles already look like one of the best rosters in the league, every win matters for Dallas. A 3-0 start would give the Cowboys a cushion heading into a brutal stretch that includes a short-week matchup with the Houston Texans. But a perfect start is far from guaranteed. Let’s break it down.

Christian Parker’s defense needs to communicate from the jump

The Cowboys don’t need to be a Top 10 defense by Week 1. They don’t even need to be Top 15. What they do need is to limit explosive plays against the Jaxson Dart-led New York Giants and avoid the kind of defensive miscommunication that handed games to opponents in 2025.

With Dart now under center for New York, that becomes a real concern. If Russell Wilson did what he did to Dallas early last season, the idea of what Dart could do with his athleticism is frightening (it’s tough to count Week 18 last year given the circumstances). The Giants not having wide receiver Malik Nabers, who is rehabbing from a torn ACL, would be a significant boost for the Cowboys. But even if Nabers plays, the bigger issue is whether Dallas cornerbacks and safeties will be on the same page in coverage.

Defenses take time to gel. That’s understood. But Week 1 against the Giants is the easiest game in this three-game stretch. The Cowboys cannot afford to have defensive backs looking at each other wondering what the coverage call was. That is how you lose to a rebuilding team on the road.

Cowboys’ protection must hold against Giants’ scary front

If there is one thing that scares me about the Giants’ roster, it’s their pass rush trio of Abdul Carter, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Brian Burns. That’s honestly one of the top groupings in the league, and first-round pick Arvell Reese will likely have pass-rushing responsibilities as well, even as a linebacker.

It’s also a potential mismatch for the Cowboys. Offensive tackles Terrence Steele and Tyler Guyton need to be ready. Both had mediocre pass protection in 2025 and the offense often struggled against top-tier pass rushing teams. Keeping Dak Prescott clean and upright on primetime football is one of the major storylines of this game. If the Giants’ front disrupts the pocket early, it could set the tone for the wrong kind of season opener.

Take away Terry McLaurin, take away the Commanders

The Week 3 game against the Washington Commanders comes down to one player: wide receiver Terry McLaurin. 

Other than McLaurin, there isn’t a whole lot to fear on the Commanders’ offensive playmakers group, which was recently ranked 27th in the NFL by ESPN. Antonio Williams and Treylon Burks are their current projected starters. Simply put, there’s not a lot of production in that group. 

There’s been chatter about the Commanders potentially signing Brandon Aiyuk if the San Francisco 49ers cut him later in the offseason, but until that happens, I’m not buying it because that is a complicated saga still unfolding.

Take the wide receiver room at face value and it doesn’t look great for Washington. The Cowboys secondary is filled with its own question marks, but in this game, they have one assignment. Take McLaurin away, and the Commanders offense should struggle. And if Washington’s offense struggles, the Cowboys should be able to handle business because Dan Quinn’s defense is still being retooled. It will be better, but it has issues to sort through.

Cowboys LBs must contain Lamar Jackson

The Week 3 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens presents the toughest challenge in the opening stretch. Cowboys linebackers remain one of the biggest question marks on the roster, and they will be tasked with containing one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the NFL.

Dallas doesn’t have the traditional thumper at middle linebacker—at least not yet. What they do have are guys who run fast and hit hard in DeMarvion Overshown and Dee Winters. Those players are going to need to be on their A-game because there’s already enough to worry about with the Ravens’ downhill run game. Derrick Henry is bound to have a productive day in this matchup, so I’m throwing the towel in that front. But at the very least, the Cowboys need to prevent Lamar Jackson from creating the explosive plays that put games out of reach.

The defensive line factors in here, too. Rashan Gary, Kenny Clark, and Quinnen Williams need to win at the point of attack and take on blocks so the linebackers can flow to the football. In this defense, the defensive line works for the linebackers, says Cowboys DC Christian Parker. 

Baltimore can run the ball as well as anyone. If the Cowboys’ front isn’t stout, handling both Henry and Jackson becomes too tall an order. There’s a coaching change in Baltimore with Jesse Minter taking over John Harbaugh’s old team, sure, but expect continuity on the offensive side of the ball.

Perfect start awaits?

That’s the list. Three games and a realistic path to 3-0 if the defense communicates early, the offensive line holds up, the linebackers step into their assignments, and the secondary locks in on the one receiver who can beat them in Week 2. The season doesn’t get easier after that with a short week against the Houston Texans. But with a 3-0 cushion? We’ll be feeling good about this Cowboys season.