I don’t blame anyone confused by what the heck is going on with George Pickens and the Dallas Cowboys. Here’s a brief rundown of what we know based information from multiple reports:

1. Pickens hasn’t signed the franchise tag the Cowboys designated him to earlier in the year.
2. Pickens’ camp informed the Cowboys via email that he intends to sign it.
3. If Pickens signs it, he will be obligated to show up to mandatory minicamp and training camp. Plus, he’ll be eligible to be traded.
4. The Cowboys have expressed they have “zero” intentions of trading him, while also announcing they won’t negotiate a long-term deal.

So where do we go from there? Below are five scenarios for Pickens’ future ranked from likeliest to least likely.

1. Pickens signs and plays on the tag

Based on the intel we’ve heard from insiders, this has to top the list. We’ve heard a trade and an extension isn’t happening. But we’ve heard he informed the Cowboys about planning to sign the tag.

To be fair, it’s difficult to understand Pickens’ motivation to sign the tag instead of holding out as a leverage play, which is usually the approach by players in his situation, regardless of representation. But reports indicate that’s his plan. And it would be a best-case scenario for Dallas.

2. Pickens backs out from signing the tag, holds out before showing up for Week 1

Maybe Pickens changed his mind? Given the Cowboys kicked off voluntary workouts earlier in the week and that the star wide receiver didn’t show up to sign, it’s a fair question to ask.

The timing could be off or it could simply be that Pickens plans to show up to the facilities until later. But if he’s committing to signing the tag as a sign of being in on playing under the tag, it would have made a lot of sense for him to show up right from the get go.

3. A trade happens

I’d put this well below the first two scenarios, but still at No. 3.

In the NFL world, what a team says or doesn’t say doesn’t necessarily reflect its real plans. Is there a universe in which Pickens doesn’t sign the tag, threatens missing playing time, and the Cowboys receive a strong trade offer? I think so.

As of right now, I wouldn’t bet on it. But it’s still one of the strongest explanations as to why Pickens would want to sign the tag, especially after the Cowboys shut down negotiations.

4. Pickens misses playing time

I don’t see this one happening but I have to list it. If Pickens doesn’t sign the tag, he would be able to miss regular season games. As long as he shows up for Week 10, he would accrue one more season to be able to hit free agency in 2027.

But one year ago, front offices didn’t think Pickens was worth more than a third-round pick. Even now, some may be concerned about his behavior changing with a top-of-the-market deal. Him not showing up to play would be to his detriment.

His best path forward to becoming the highest-paid WR in the league is putting together another standout year like he did in 2025.

5. Cowboys and Pickens agree to a long-term extension

This would be a stunner. But I guess it could happen if the Cowboys and Pickens restart conversations near training camp despite telling the public they wouldn’t. Deals happen quickly in the NFL and sometimes all it takes is a conversation or two.

I can’t rule it out at this stage.