The franchise and transition tag window is now over, so there's finally a clear picture of which NFL players will actually hit the market when the new league year starts next week.

To make this exercise, we utilized the top 105 free agent list from A to Z Sports, excluding players who have received a tag or re-signed with their original teams.

1) QB Kirk Cousins – Atlanta Falcons

• Projected Contract: 2 yrs $80M, $40M APY, $55M fully GTD
• Year One Cap Hit: $28M

The Minnesota Vikings are saying they want to keep Cousins, but not at any price. That's all you need to know. Kirk Cousins is known for his ability to extract the most value out of his play, and that's probably what he will do again.

Last year, Cousins asked for a fully-guaranteed contract from the Vikings and didn't get it. So even though he is projected to receive slightly more than a year guaranteed, he might actually get more than that in the open market — maybe even two fully-guaranteed years, or at least rolling guarantees.

The Falcons make sense because they have tried to add a big-time quarterback when Deshaun Watson was available, and the lack of decent quarterback play last season derailed their performance. Moreover, Cousins runs a similar system that the Falcons will run under offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.

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2) QB Baker Mayfield – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Projected Contract: 3 yrs $90M, $30M APY, $32.5M Fully GTD
• Year One Cap Hit: $12.5M

After the Bucs extended wide receiver Mike Evans, it became clear that they would probably re-sign Mayfield as well. The former first overall pick played at a pretty good level last year, and there's little reason for both parties to split up.

Mayfield said after the season that the offensive coordinator choice to place Dave Canales would be a huge factor, and the Bucs' decision to hire Liam Coen, who was Mayfield's offensive coordinator with the Ram two years ago, is a positive outcome.

3) DT Chris Jones – Kansas City Chiefs

• Projected Contract: 4 yrs $110M, $27.5M APY, $65M fully GTD
• Year One Cap Hit: $13M

Jones is a great piece, but he's probably more valuable to the Chiefs than he is to anybody else. He is known for picking spots to play at a high level, and not many teams can afford that for a player who will get almost $30 million per season. The Chiefs can, and have.

Salary cap is an important consideration here, but the Chiefs might trade franchise-tagged cornerback L'Jarius Sneed, opening up space to reach a new deal with the defensive tackle.

4) DT Christian Wilkins – New England Patriots

• Projected Contract: 4 yrs, $92M, $23M APY, $50M GTD
• Year One Cap Hit: $6.2M

The Patriots would love to take away a player from the divisional rivals Miami Dolphins, and New England has $88.75 million in cap space, the second highest number in the league.

New head coach Jerod Mayo wants to keep the defense playing at a high level after the Bill Belichick era, and the new defensive coordinator is DeMarcus Covington, who spent the last four seasons as a defensive line coach.

5) EDGE Danielle Hunter – Chicago Bears

• Projected Contract: 3 yrs, $67.5M, $22.5M APY, $40M GTD
• Year One Cap Hit: $9M

General manager Ryan Poles hasn't shied away from spending to get better pass rushers. Last year, the team signed Yannick Ngakoue and DeMarcus Walker, then traded for and extended Montez Sweat.

Hunter is going to his third NFL contract, but he's still relatively young at 29. The Bears have $56.465 million in cap space, so there's more than enough room to make one more splash move.

6) WR Calvin Ridley – Jacksonville Jaguars

• Projected Contract: 3 yrs, $60M, $20M APY, $27.5M GTD
• Year One Cap Hit: $7M

The Jaguars probably didn't execute any new contract with Ridley because that would implicate them giving away a second- instead of a third-rounder to the Atlanta Falcons. Allowing him to hit the market mitigates the cost.

It wouldn't be smart for the Jaguars to let Ridley leave in free agency, because he has the highest ceiling among the team's offensive weapons to help Trevor Lawrence. The projected deal is not cheap, but the Jaguars can structure it in a way to still have decent flexibility.

7) LB Patrick Queen – Seattle Seahawks

• Projected Contract: 4 yrs, $73M, $18.25M APY, $38M GTD
• Year One Cap Hit: $7M

The Seahawks didn't have great off-ball linebacker play in 2023, and to get things worse, Jordyn Brooks, Bobby Wagner, and Devin Bush are hitting the market. So under new head coach Mike Macdonald, it makes sense to invest in a player he knows very well.

Patrick Queen hadn't played well in the NFL until the Ravens decided to trade for Roquan Smith, but Macdonald unleashed an even better version of him in 2023. With $36.22 million of cap space, Seattle can do it.

8) Leonard Williams – Tennessee Titans

• Projected Contract: 3 yrs, $52.5 million, $17.5 APY, $27.5M GTD
• Year One Cap Hit: $7M

Offensive line is a bigger need for the Titans, but it's hard to solve this problem in free agency. Moreover, Kyle Peko, Jaleel Johnson, and Denico Autry are all slated to hit the market, so the Titans need a good replacement to play alongside Jeffrey Simmons.

Tennessee has $75.817 million in cap space, so they can afford a more risky move like that.

9) Bryce Huff – Washington Commanders

• Projected Contract: 4 yrs, $64M, $16.0M APY, $17.5M fully GTD
• Year One Cap Hit: $5.5M

With $91.542 million in cap space, the Commanders have to spend somewhere. So it makes sense to spend on a premium position when the team just traded away Montez Sweat and Chase Young, and the new head coach Dan Quinn is a defensive guy.

Huff has the free agent profile who has a real chance to work out. He is still young, going into free agency for the first time after being undrafted and playing under an RFA tender in 2023, and he played really well in a limited role for the New York Jets.

Now, besides money, he also wants more playing time. The Commanders can offer both.

10) EDGE Za'Darius Smith – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Projected Contract: 2 yrs, $31M, $15.5M APY, $22.5M GTD
• Year One Cap Hit: $6.5M

The Bucs re-signed Mike Evans and are expected to get Baker Mayfield back, so it might be time to invest in the defense after that. And edge is a need, especially after the team released Shaquil Barrett.

Za'Darius Smith has had three teams over the last three years, but he's been highly productive throughout his career. Last season, he was a complementary rusher to Myles Garrett, but he showed with the Green Bay Packers that he can be a primary option too.

Understanding the basics of NFL Free Agency

A handy guide that can help you navigate the complicated world of free agency.