Matt LaFleur has been an excellent head coach for the Green Bay Packers throughout his tenure, and it’s impossible to argue with the offensive contributions and cultural aspects of his job in Green Bay. But it’s also hard to argue that 2025 created some negativity around what LaFleur is able to achieve.

The injuries were real and affected the outcome, but LaFleur put the Packers in position to compete regardless just to allow a series of late-game mistakes to kill the team’s chances.

Despite all that, new president Ed Policy decided to give LaFleur a long-term contract extension, securing him for years to come.

“I wouldn’t have it any other way,” Policy said after extending LaFleur. “The second half of that Chicago game was very disappointing. We were all extremely frustrated. I know fans were frustrated, and I wouldn’t want them not to be frustrated. They’re very passionate about our team, about our games. I wouldn’t change it, and I did hear quite a bit of it. I can’t let that factor into these types of decisions.”

Now, LaFleur is totally safe. Well, unless something bad happens on the football field.

What could make the Packers get rid of LaFleur?

On “The Athletic Football Show” earlier this week, NFL analyst Derrik Klassen mentioned Matt LaFleur as a potential head coach who’s good but could lose his job after the 2026 season depending on how things go. The listener’s question was intended to find coaches who could suffer the same fate as John Harbaugh did with the Baltimore Ravens after 2025.

Klassen’s point is that last season created pressure. But more than that, the NFC North is a bloodbath. If the Packers take a step back because of roster turnover, they can reasonably be last in the division even being a talented roster. Host Robert Mays argued that Matt LaFleur has just gotten a contract extension, which makes firing him much less likely.

All points sound fair, even if the Packers bottoming out doesn’t seem a likely scenario. But how bad would that have to be for the Packers to actually fire LaFleur a year from now?

Beyond football performance

The Packers historically tend to be a conservative franchise, and it doesn’t seem like it has changed under Ed Policy. He is not the type of leader who would completely alter the team’s path because of a few games.

Obviously, a bad season on the field would create more pressure and potentially put LaFleur on the hot seat for the future. But it’s hard to imagine Green Bay firing LaFleur just one season after his extension — the new years of the deal wouldn’t even have kicked in yet.

In order for the Packers to make a decision like that and be willing to pay two head coaches at the same time for several years, something beyond the on-field production would have to materialize.

Besides being out of the playoffs and potentially in the last spot in the NFC North, Matt LaFleur would have to show clear signs of losing the locker room. Or any other factor that would be essentially impossible to recover from.

Green Bay extended LaFleur because the top executives believe he can be a winning head coach for years to come. That’s not about to change, unless something huge happens on and off the field.