Colts Playoff Picture: Things got a lot tougher for the team during their Week 11 bye week, but they control their own destiny

The Colts path to becoming the top seed in the AFC and winning their division got tougher and it’s because of something out of their control.

Destin Adams — NFL News Writer

Nov 17, 2025 1:21 PM EST

The Indianapolis Colts were sitting at the top of the AFC entering their bye in Week 11. They had to sit back and hope that other teams could provide some help to keep them there, though. Sadly, that didn’t happen, and now they have fallen a bit down the list.

More importantly, the room for error has significantly decreased for the Colts as they enter a brutal stretch of their schedule. 

The Colts already knew they had an important game directly after their bye as they travel to take on the reigning AFC champion, the Kansas City Chiefs. The Week 11 results increased the pressure on the Colts, though. It is already hard to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead; they have won four of their five home games this season. 

Their only home loss came against the Philadelphia Eagles in a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl. Now, the Colts will try to be the second team in Week 12, facing a very motivated Chiefs team coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Denver Broncos.

They are now 5-5, and the Colts have the chance to put a massive dagger in the Chiefs’ chances of winning the AFC West. A Colts win would also put the Chiefs in an enormous hole that they would have to overcome to make the playoffs, even as a wild-card team. 

The race for the AFC’s top seed and the AFC South crown got tighter, while the Colts had to sit back and watch during bye week

The Colts started Week 11 as the top seed in the AFC and, without playing a game, have fallen two spots to the third seed. The New England Patriots and the Broncos secured wins, improving to 9-2. On top of the race for the one seed getting tougher, the Colts’ stronghold on the AFC South also diminished.

Both the Texans and the Jaguars picked up wins in Week 11, bringing the Colts’ lead in the division to two games over Jacksonville and three games over the Texans. The Colts still have to play both twice in the next seven weeks. It’s felt like many have treated the Colts as a lock to win the AFC South, and that’s simply not the case. 

Every game from here on out is of high importance for the Colts, who are looking to win the AFC South for the first time since 2014. The team is also undefeated when playing at home this season, so ensuring that the AFC runs through Lucas Oil Stadium would be a huge advantage.