The questions about the Miami Dolphins’ latest quarterback gamble are fair but there’s little room for historical precedent in the debate
No, Miami Dolphins QB Malik Willis doesn’t have a lot of experience. But exactly how good has he been in the reps he’s gotten?
The biggest critique around the Miami Dolphins’ investment into quarterback Malik Willis can be boiled down to two words: “sample size”.
The amount of reps that Willis has taken in live action over the course of his four year NFL career could be described as “negligible. In all, Willis has taken 209 career drop backs behind center in his four seasons in the NFL. If all goes well, Willis could take three times that many in 2026 alone. But what what Willis is lacking in the way of volume, he’s made up for with some unprecedented productivity.
Miami Dolphins QB Malik Willis’ two-year production versus his peers
The Green Bay version of Malik Willis has been exceptionally productive. His ability to sustain that efficiency in a brand new environment with some brand new coaches will be determined in the months and years ahead. But consider this about the Willis resume in Green Bay:
- Willis posted an 0.41 EPA/drop back in 2024 and 2025 combined
- He posted a 50.7% success rate
Out of 64 NFL quarterbacks with at least 85 pass attempts between the 2024 and 2025 seasons combined, that EPA/drop back rank is 1st. Detroit’s Jared Goff is ranked second — with an EPA/drop back of 0.22. His success rate ranks tied for 4th. San Francisco’s Brock Purdy leads the pack at 52.4%, followed by Joe Burrow (51.6%), and Josh Allen (51.2%). Willis’ success rate was tied with New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye.
That’s handsome company. But when you put Willis into a class of peers with similar workloads over a two-year sample size, one thing becomes evident. Willis has no peers from a historical precedent standpoint.
Workload peers for Malik Willis
Here are the NFL quarterbacks of the last 20 years with between 85 and 100 pass attempts in a two-year window (minimum 20 attempts in each season) who managed to post a positive EPA/drop back and a success rate over 45.0%:
- Malik Willis, Green Bay (2024-2025): 0.41 EPA/drop back, 50.7% success rate
- Tanner McKee, Philadelphia (2024-2025): 0.13 EPA/drop back, 46.2% success rate
That’s it. That’s the list. This group includes more than 30 total quarterbacks. Legendary names like Jim Sorgi, Brady Quinn, Charlie Frye, Josh Johnson, Matt Moore, Derek Anderson, Matt Schaub, and plenty more. Some of these names achieved positive EPA and 45%+ success rate, (Moore and Anderson included) but their workload was limited to one season. Willis has the highest 2-year standalone number in both measures, regardless of the filters for volume in each season.
It adds up to a historical resume that is fairly unmatched. We’ll see how it goes. But whether it is compared to his peers from a volume OR an efficiency standpoint, it appears to be a good bet nonetheless.
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