Projecting Minnesota Vikings snap counts: Brian Flores’ history of not starting rookies could be challenged this season
ESPN’s Kevin Seifert highlighted how few starts and snaps rookies have gotten under Brian Flores. Will that change this year?
The lack of rookie success with the Minnesota Vikings over the last few years has been noticeable. However, there are reasons behind that. ESPN’s Kevin Seifert wrote an excellent piece on the lack of rookie success with Brian Flores’ defense.
“In his three previous seasons with the Vikings, Flores has tapped only one rookie starter: undrafted linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. in 2023. Over Flores’ tenure, the Vikings have the NFL’s second-fewest rookie starts (16) and the second-fewest rookie snaps (2,110) among defensive players, according to ESPN Research.”
He goes on to note the obvious reason: Dallas Turner is the only defense-only draft pick in the top 100 the Vikings have made in the last three years. The only other players selected in the top 130? Mekhi Blackmon (102) and Khyree Jackson (108). Blackmon got substantial playing time, whereas Jackson tragically passed away before his first training camp. Plus, Turner played only 310 snaps because Jonathan Greenard played at an All-Pro level and Andrew Van Ginkel made second-team All-Pro.
How often will these individuals end up playing or starting? Let’s make some projections based on 1,000 defensive snaps.
DT Caleb Banks
He is the most intriguing player of the bunch. As a first-round pick who plays on a weaker position on the Vikings’ defense, it makes complete sense to pencil in Banks as a starter. However, those jobs aren’t handed out on a silver platter.
The foot injuries Banks is still working back from have prevented him from actually hitting the practice field during offseason workouts. He is projected to hit the field for the first training camp practice, and time will tell how much he plays, and a lot of it will be initially based on practice. He’s unlike anyone else on the roster with his size and athleticism, which will give him an inherent advantage.
Snaps played: 520
Starts made: 10
LB Jake Golday
Looking at the linebacker position, Golday likely slots into that LB3 role behind Eric Wilson and Blake Cashman ahead of him. While some are projecting him to take over for Andrew Van Ginkel, I fully expect him to be the Cashman replacement.
As a rookie, Golday is fascinating to parse out as a rookie. He needs time to develop his instincts as a traditional off-ball linebacker, with the majority of his off-ball experience being playing in the slot. That element will help him get on the field in sub-package roles, but likely won’t be in a more traditional role right away. He will start for the 2-4 games that Cashman misses, but won’t be a major focus on defense in year one.
Snaps played: 246
Starts made: 3
DT Domonique Orange
Nose tackle isn’t a major priority when it comes to overall snaps. On passing downs, they will almost certainly take off the nose tackle. Plus, they may have other subpackages without the nose tackle, as Flores likes to use penetrating pressure in many situations.
Even when they play nose tackle, are we sure it will be Orange? He will have to beat out incumbent Levi Drake Rodriguez, who is more of a well-rounded player, not just a nose tackle. I fully expect Orange to get a few starts during the year, but be a rotational player overall.
Snaps played: 310
Starts made: 4
S Jakobe Thomas
The hardest player to pin down in this group is Thomas. The 98th overall pick plays a position with an opening, and safeties often get in the game early on, especially when they are selected in the top 100.
Thomas still has an uphill battle to win the starting job, with Theo Jackson and Jay Ward being his competition, let alone a possible Harrison Smith return. I have real concerns about Thomas’ hips being tight, but intelligence will tell the story about his playing time more than anything else. If he can do that, the potential is very high. Even with that, I don’t project him to be a starter more than just in an injury replacement role.
Snaps played: 290
Starts made: 4
CB Charles Demmings
Demmings is the easiest to pin down. As a 5th-round pick, he did have a lot of starting experience at Stephen F. Austin. However, cornerbacks in Flores’ scheme have a lot of extra responsibilities.
You have to maneuver pre-snap through multiple different coverage looks and be able to make adjustments quickly with excellent communication. Will Demmings be able to do that? Training camp will tell us a lot about his initial ability to do just that, and if he shows that aptitude, rotational snaps (5-10/game average) makes sense.
Snaps played: 210
Starts made: 0
