The Chicago Bears are a tough team to figure out. They are 19th by DVOA, which considers the level of competition a team has faced to measure performance, but have a 9-3 record with the first seed in the NFC.

It’s not luck, by any means, as the Bears have a top run game and comfortably lead the league in turnover differential (+17). However, quarterback Caleb Williams and the passing game have been inconsistent, which creates a weird feeling around where this team can go.

On Sunday, it will be the Green Bay Packers’ task to figure them out. It’s the first Matt LaFleur-Ben Johnson matchup as head coaches, and a game that has a lot at stake in the NFC playoff conversation.

Because of that, we talked to A to Z Sports Chicago Bears beat writer, Kole Noble, to have his perspective about the matchup.

Is it possible to stop the Bears’ rushing offense?

Since the bye week, frankly no one has been able to stop the Bears’ rushing attack. The only team that came close was the Baltimore Ravens, who held Chicago to just 96 yards, but the offense still was able to average 4.2 yards per carry — which conveniently happened to be the last loss the Bears had.

The reason the Ravens were able to find success in “stopping” the run game was by forcing Ben Johnson to shorten the playbook in the fourth quarter. What I mean by that is, the Bears only called six run plays in the fourth with 17 pass attempts despite trailing 16-6.

If the Packers want to stop this rushing attack, they’ll need to score points early and control the game in that way. If the Bears get out to a quick lead, Johnson will pound the run game and control the clock the way he did against the Philadelphia Eagles. The run-blocking from everyone involved and two-back approach have been extremely difficult for teams to defend against, and the best way to do so is forcing Chicago into a passing game as early as possible.

Why do the Bears appear lower in some advanced metrics like DVOA or success rate despite their record?

It ultimately is due to the passing game on both sides of the ball. Offensively, the Bears are struggling to get the pass game going, quarterback Caleb Williams is missing some wide open targets, and other times it’s having wide open receivers drop the ball or fall down, which holds the offense back despite having one of the league’s best run games.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears are giving up far too many big plays in the passing game. Entering Week 14, the Bears have allowed 21 completions of 20+ air yards, the fourth-most in the NFL, and the most passing TDs (8) of 20+ air yards. Having Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon back and getting healthy, in theory, should help with that to some extent.

But, at the end of the day, this team is stepping up when it matters most and that’s been the reason this team has won nine games and are winning the way they are. Williams has ice in his veins when it comes to late-game situations, and Dennis Allen has been able to put teams away defensively like he did against the Steelers and Giants. It doesn’t matter what happens during the rest of the game, if the Bears manage to keep things close in the fourth quarter, the confidence is there that either side of the ball can close it out. It’s rare to even say that about Chicago.

How’s Caleb Williams’ development in Year 2 and how the Packers can still affect him?

I guarantee anyone you ask in the building, including Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams would say that, it’s still going slow — and that’s okay. The Bears have found a winning formula that doesn’t require Williams to be the star player, but more of a point guard.

With that being said, you can’t be a successful point guard if you’re missing easy passes, and that’s something Williams continues to struggle with. It all still goes back to his footwork. When asked about his obvious misses after games the last few weeks, Williams puts the blame on being off balance or not having his feet in front of him.

From an operation standpoint, Johnson said last week’s game was one of Williams’ best games controlling the huddle and operating all of the pre-snap movements. His development using his X-factor ability effectively, both running and passing on the run, has taken his game to an entirely new level. Right now, it’s still about hitting the basics because not hitting some of those layups attempts have shown to throw entire drives off-schedule. So, it just comes down to getting pressure and throwing him off-balance in the pocket while not letting him escape.

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