The Pittsburgh Steelers made a big move for their future on Tuesday, locking down a premier pass rusher and ascending talent in Nick Herbig to a four-year, $100 million deal. Herbig will be with the Steelers for at least the next five years, and he said before the deal was signed that he wanted to be a Steeler for life.

There’s just one issue after this deal for the Steelers. Herbig is now paid to be a starter, but Pittsburgh already employs two starters at that position. Dedicating a large portion of the cap to three pass rushers isn’t very business-savvy, even for a defensive-minded group like the Steelers. So one of Alex Highsmith or T.J. Watt will likely be gone come 2027. We have already analyzed what a Highsmith trade would look like, so today, three of my colleagues at A to Z Sports have sent hypothetical offers for Watt, and I picked a winner at the end. Let’s dive in.

49ers pair T.J. Watt with Nick Bosa

49ers receive: TJ Watt, 2027 5th-round pick
Steelers receive: 2027 2nd-round pick, 2028 3rd-round pick

“The 49ers are pressed to find answers after the Los Angeles Rams traded for Myles Garrett. And there wouldn’t be a cooler way of doing that than pulling the trigger on a trade for a high-end edge rusher. Keeping the Watt vs. Garrett rivalry in the same division would be the cherry on top.”

“The 2027 class is too good, and Watt is not in his prime anymore, so sending a first is probably too much at this point. But this package of picks could be a reasonable compensation for the Steelers, while the Niners would be able to pair Watt and Nick Bosa to create one of the most powerful edge duos in the league. The 49ers lead the NFL in cap space at the moment, so nobody is in a better position to absorb Watt’s huge contract.” – Wendell Ferreira, A to Z Sports NFL

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Steelers receive another young EDGE from Eagles

Offer: Philadelphia Eagles send Nolan Smith and a conditional 2028 2nd (turns into a 1st with a Super Bowl win in the next 2 years) to the Steelers for T.J. Watt

“Let’s not beat around the bush here. Trading T.J. Watt would be a massive deal, but it makes all the more sense with how things look for the Steelers at edge rusher. They just gave Nick Herbig a market-level extension and are paying Alex Highsmith a big-money contract as well.”

“The Watt contract is an albatross for a player who isn’t a truly elite player at the position anymore, but rather just behind his AAV. The Eagles have been aggressive in addressing the defensive line and adding Watt opposite of Jonathan Greenard with Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis on the inside would be unfair.”

“The Steelers get back an EDGE3 in Smith on a rookie contract, and a chance at a first-round pick if Watt helps the Steelers make the Super Bowl. Not the greatest return in the world, but it’s a hefty contract another team would be absorbing, with salary cap hits of $32 million, $32 million, and $36.05 million the next three years. That drops the value down a bit.” – Tyler Forness, A to Z Sports NFL

T.J. Watt goes to Chicago

Bears Receive: T.J. Watt
Steelers Receive: 2027 first-round pick, 2028 second-round pick

“Myles Garrett reinforced for what a trade involving an elite-level pass rusher should look like after seeing the Micah Parsons haul from a year ago and the haul that nearly went for Maxx Crosby. For T.J. Watt’s case, however, I don’t foresee the Steelers getting to that level of a return involving multiple first-round picks primarily due to Watt’s contract, which would be a major sticking point for Chicago.”

“The Bears are currently tight on cap space and won’t be able to absorb his deal without the Steelers eating a chunk of the cost or making some major adjustments. After 2026, things will be more manageable to work in this deal, but I still don’t see it happening. Regardless, a player of Watt’s caliber off the edge is the missing piece of the puzzle on Chicago’s roster that can put this team over the top as a championship contender. The Bears need a defensive closer and Watt could be that guy, but he’s easily the most expensive option from a return and price tag standpoint compared to other options.” – Kole Noble, A to Z Sports Chicago

Winning offer: Bears

All of these offers are very good, but a 2027 1st in a talent-rich draft is too good to pass on here, with the 2028 pick as a cherry on top. In all honesty, this offseason is probably the last year that the Steelers could receive a first-rounder for Watt, and even that would be a little rich.

The Bears have a ready-made roster that is truly a player away from a Super Bowl run. Trading away what will likely be a pick between 26-32 for a greater chance at a championship is feasible for Chicago, and too good to pass on for the Steelers.