Examining the price of a first-round trade up for the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 NFL Draft
The San Francisco 49ers are in an interesting spot in the 2024 NFL Draft. They have a clear primary need on the offensive line and, for the first time since 2021, they have a first-round pick. Yet San Francisco still might not be in a position to fill their most glaring hole with the 31st […]
The San Francisco 49ers are in an interesting spot in the 2024 NFL Draft. They have a clear primary need on the offensive line and, for the first time since 2021, they have a first-round pick. Yet San Francisco still might not be in a position to fill their most glaring hole with the 31st overall selection.
San Francisco has a future Hall of Famer at left tackle in Trent Williams, but right tackle is a huge long-term concern. Colton McKivitz signed a one-year extension last month, yet teams consistently took advantage of the right side of the 49er front, the most glaring example of that coming in the Super Bowl as the Kansas City Chiefs continually pressured Brock Purdy.
Though the 49ers re-signed veteran Jon Feliciano, whose injury in the Super Bowl arguably the cost them the title, to a one-year deal, they need an answer who can hold down the right guard spot for foreseeable future, 2022 fourth-round pick Spencer Burford having proven ill-equipped to do so.
It is a deep offensive line class, especially at the tackle spot. Still, there is a chance that a potential run on tackles and the best interior prospects puts the 49ers in a spot where there isn't a prospect they like at either of those spots on the board at number 31.
As such, for a team in win-now mode, the 49ers could consider a move up the board to land a prospect they believe could be an immediate contributor and a long-term starter at an area of need.
It is a move they could make to target other positions beyond offensive line. The 49ers have typically invested heavily in the defensive front in the draft and would benefit from adding a premium talent on edge and on the interior, while cornerback will also likely be a consideration with both of the San Francisco's starters, Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir, set to enter free agency next offseason.
To justify a trade up, the 49ers would need to get themselves into a position on the board whereby they would have maximum flexibility.
If the Niners are prepared to go against their draft history and invest premium capital on the offensive line, then they would ideally want to be in a spot where they could have their pick of the second group at that position. In other words, the top 20. Being in that position could also allow them capitalize on a slight fall for an edge rusher such as Laitau Latu or Jared Verse, pick one of the top interior defenders in Johnny Newton, or select one of the top five corners in the class.
So what would it take to get into the top 20?
To answer that question, let's take a look at the two trade value charts. The Jimmy Johnson chart and the Rich Hill chart.
On the Rich Hall Chart, the 31st overall pick is worth 190 points. The 20th overall pick is worth 269. That is a gap of 79 points, which could be bridged by the 49ers sending their second-round pick (63rd overall), worth 82 points, to the Pittsburgh Steelers in a deal to move up 11 spots.
Packaging 31 with pick 63 would be enough to get to 20 on the Jimmy Johnson chart. Intriguingly, that package would also be sufficient to get to 19th overall.
On the Johnson chart, pick 31 is worth 600 points and pick 19 is worth 875. With pick 63 worth 276 points, the Niners theoretically have the ammunition to get to 19th overall.
The problem in that scenario is that division rivals Los Angeles Rams, the team most likely to challenge the 49ers in the NFC West, own the 19th pick, significantly complicating such a deal.
Beyond that issue, the main concern for the 49ers is that, while they are very much in 'Super Bowl or bust' mode, they also are in a position where they need to hit on a high number of picks in a draft in which they have 10 to refresh a top-heavy and expensive roster.
As such, trading a second-rounder to move up the board in a draft where they will have a chance to net an impact player at 31 might not be an appetizing idea in the minds of the front office.
The likely price of doing business to give themselves a shot at prospects with a better chance of being a sure bet is clear, but it's dubious whether the Niners will be willing to pay it.
