The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are assembling the list of top draft targets heading into the 2026 NFL Draft and former Miami Hurricanes EDGE Akheem Mesidor is firmly in the mix.

There’s a lot to like about the twitchy, physical pass rusher, but his age is a big concern. He’s 25 and if he gets selected in the first round, he’ll be 30 before the first snap of his second contract is taken.

ESPN released its 2026 draft projections on Tuesday, which analyzes each player and lays out the odds of each guy becoming a Pro Bowler, starter, backup, etc. in the NFL. The projections are compiled through a certain formula and man, said process was unkind to Mesidor’s chances of making an impact as an NFL player.

ESPN’s draft projections say Akheem Mesidor has less than a 21% chance of becoming a starter

Per ESPN, Mesidor has a 16.1% chance of becoming a starter and a 4.7% chance of getting to Pro Bowler level. In all, he has a 20.8% chance of playing starting football on a regular basis.

That’s obviously a big red flag for what could be the 15th overall pick in the NFL. Especially when considering other potential Buccaneers draft targets like Cashius Howell, C.J. Allen, Jordan Tyson, and Mansoor Delane all have at least a 28% chance of becoming a starter.

Even linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, who’s largely considered a Day 2 pick, has a 63.9% chance of becoming a starter, which breaks down to a 34.3% chance of becoming a Pro Bowler and and a 29.6% chance of hitting starter-level.

So, the Buccaneers need to avoid Mesidor like the plague at 15, right?

Well, not so fast.

There’s a missing factor in Mesidor’s projections

As mentioned earlier, ESPN uses a certain formula to create the projections:

Player projections are the chance that a prospect will develop into each of the five listed categories above, according to position-specific analytic models based on grades from Scouts, Inc. and combine metrics. Each category corresponds to the likelihood that the player achieves a percentile range of Approximate Value (AV) within the first three years in the pros. AV is a metric of player success provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com. 

Well, Mesidor didn’t participate in combine drills and ESPN’s model doesn’t have any measureables outside height, weight, arm length, wingspan and hand size:

So, in actuality, this projection doesn’t mean anything. He didn’t participate in testing drills at Miami’s pro day, either, but did some work in positional drills. No negative reviews/criticisms surfaced afterward, leading us to think he looked good.

There’s no reason to use this regarding Mesidor. It’s sensible for plenty of other players, but head elsewhere when looking for his career projection.