The Tennessee Titans and LG Peter Skoronski are headed toward a contract negotiation that could reset expectations for the interior line market across the NFL.

With the salary cap jumping from $279 million to $301 million and Tyler Linderbaum’s 3-year/$81 million deal with the Raiders establishing a new high-water mark for interior offensive linemen, Tennessee’s next big extension is shaping up to be more expensive than most fans are prepared for.

I have to be transparent here: I’ve changed my tune on this one. If you go back and find my reaction to the Linderbaum signing on the day it happened, I was like everybody else. My first thought was “how much?” Largely because we had been talking about Linderbaum as a potential Titans target, and when that number came out, we suddenly understood why the Titans lost out. I also wrote in recent weeks framing the question as whether Skowronski would come in above or below the Trey Smith and Tyler Smith deals at $23.5 million and $24 million per year.

I have taken a step back and decided I was wrong. Here’s why.

Why the salary cap changes everything

Here’s the thing about those Smith contracts: both were signed under the previous salary cap. The cap has increased nearly 8% since then, and the only major offensive line deal signed in this new reality is Linderbaum’s. It’s time to shift our perspective!

The Raiders, just like the Titans, pay the suck tax on top of that right now. Both teams have significant cap space and cash, which meant neither franchise have a legitimate excuse at the negotiating table about being strapped. When you look at the landscape across the league, Skoronski is clearly the next player in line for a deal at the top of his position.

I’m not saying Skoronski will get more per year than Linderbaum. They play different positions, and Linderbaum’s deal at $27 million annually is in its own tier right now. But I would bet a lot of money on Skoronski landing somewhere between Tyler Smith’s $24 million per year and Linderbaum’s $27 million. If he came in a tick above Linderbaum, it would probably shock the fanbase. I wouldn’t be flabbergasted by it, though. I really wouldn’t.

I think Skoronski will come in somewhere in the $25 million to $26 million range annually. That will probably surprise a lot of people, but I don’t think it should. The salary cap dictates the market, the Titans have cash to spend, and GM Mike Borgonzi needs to make an example of Skoronski as the kind of player this franchise builds around. An NFC executive said recently that Skowronski is going to get paid more than people expect. I’m with that guy.

At the very least, fans should stop anchoring their expectations to deals signed under last year’s cap. The market has moved, and Tennessee’s next big contract will reflect that reality.