Betting world drops major hints on what the Dallas Cowboys will and won't do in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft
It's NFL Draft week season which means teams are barraging us with smoke grenades. There might be some insights here and there from well-connected media members around the league but it's nearly impossible to tell a gold nugget from a made-up piece of information as front offices try their best to keep their plans from […]
It's NFL Draft week season which means teams are barraging us with smoke grenades. There might be some insights here and there from well-connected media members around the league but it's nearly impossible to tell a gold nugget from a made-up piece of information as front offices try their best to keep their plans from being known.
The same could go about the Dallas Cowboys. They're expected to take a wide receiver but as we inch closer to draft week, we're hearing rumors about potentially trading back and picking O-line. Maybe going with LB Jalon Walker if he's on the board or his teammate, DE Mykel Williams.
But here's my theory: The betting markets usually paint a reliable picture as insiders and the wisdom of the crowds is reflected in betting odds.
Think about those Sunday mornings when you catch a betting spread you think is surprising. Maybe the best team in the NFL is favored by three points only even though they're playing at home and facing a winless squad. Usually, it's not free money but rather the oddsmakers and early bettors know something you don't.
I applied that thinking to my first-round mock draft and listed several NFL Draft takeaways based on betting odds but this time, we're focusing on the Cowboys only. Let's dive in.
Key note on betting odds before we begin: For those unaware, the more negative a line is, the likeliest it is to happen. A -200 spread means you need to bet $200 to win $100. A positive spread is different: +200 means a $100 bet wins you $200.
Not Omarion Hampton at No. 12 overall
Here's the biggest takeaway from the currently available betting odds for me: The drafting a running back in the first round talk is likely headed nowhere. RB Omarion Hampton from North Carolina is frequently tied to the Cowboys but I don't see it at this point.
The betting odds for the Cowboys' first pick to be a RB are +800, ranking fifth, meaning it's a longshot for Dallas.
Passing on a running back shouldn't be a killer for Dallas as this year's draft class is one of the deepest at running back we've seen in years.
Top 3 positions to target
So if the Cowboys are out on RB, what position will they likely target? The betting markets believe it will be a wide receiver, which checks out considering team needs as well as Tetairoa McMillan's and Matthew Golden's expected draft position.
Rounding out the top three odds-on favorite position are offensive line and cornerback, with Will Johnson being a potential surprise pick for the latter. Below are the odds for each:
- Wide receiver -115
- Offensive line +450
- Cornerback +500
Tetairoa McMillan over Matthew Golden?
Last but not least, one of the biggest questions of this year's Cowboys draft: If both McMillan and Golden are on the board when Will McClay and Co. go on the clock, who will be the pick?
It's tough to know for sure. So far the consensus is if a wide receiver (excluding Travis Hunter) goes in the top 10, it will be McMillan. That means Golden is likelier to be available. However, many mock drafts have linked the Cowboys to Golden despite the Arizona product also being available.
Ultimately, I think I'd bet on McMillan to be the guy if both are there mostly because of the odds to be the first WR off the board:
- Tetairoa McMillan -200
- Matthew Golden +140
