Joe Milton has 'lottery odds' to become an NFL star: Vols expert breaks down new Cowboys quarterback and why he's controversial
It's incredibly easy to exaggerate about the newest quarterback on the Dallas Cowboys roster. That's what happens when you have an absolute rocket for an arm accompanied by underwhelming film. Joe Milton, who the Cowboys acquired via trade with the New England Patriots, was drafted until the sixth round despite having what NFL veteran Jacoby Brissett […]
It's incredibly easy to exaggerate about the newest quarterback on the Dallas Cowboys roster. That's what happens when you have an absolute rocket for an arm accompanied by underwhelming film.
Joe Milton, who the Cowboys acquired via trade with the New England Patriots, was drafted until the sixth round despite having what NFL veteran Jacoby Brissett casually described as the "for sure strongest arm in the league" during practice last year.
How can that be? The best arm in the league and yet he was drafted 193rd overall in 2024 and now traded away for a Day 3 swap of picks by the Pats?
I reached out to A to Z Sports' Tennessee Vols writer Craig Smith to help unravel the mystery that is Joe Milton. To Smith, he is the most physically talented QB he's ever seen and yet someone with lottery odds to evolve into a QB1. Let's dive in.
1) Joe Milton is often said to have an elite arm but everything else is missing. What kept him from taking advantage of his arm talent?
The biggest thing that kept Joe Milton from being great was Joe Milton. The arm talent is off the charts, but it's the finer aspects of the quarterback position that have really held him back. Touch, accuracy, throwing with anticipation, being decisive in his decision making. They were far too often lacking during his time in Knoxville, although his boom plays at times covered up those busts.
As a simple example, far too often, he would fire a fastball over his receivers' heads on short routes and continually overthrow wide open guys deep. That ability to simply adapt to situations and change his throws was something that wasn't happening enough in college.
2) What are other strengths from Joe Milton everyone else is ignoring?
I've been watching college football since the 1980s, and Milton might be the most physically talented QB I've ever watched play. Aside from the absurd arm talent, he's big, tall, and incredibly fast for his size. He was durable as a full-time starter, can absorb shots, and has short yardage potential – even if Josh Heupel was hesitant to use it at Tennessee.
If – and it's actually state lottery odds of an "if" here – someone could fix him mechanically and help him improve with his accuracy, decision-making and confidence, those physical traits would make him a star.
3) Milton looked very differently in the preseason than he did in Week 18, do you think he can develop into a viable QB2 or even QB1 down the road?
I'll go back to my last answer. The odds are extremely long he could become a QB1. At some point, you are who you are, and Milton appears to me to be a very physically talented player who, if he rode a hot streak, could win you a few games as a spot starter. As such, he has QB2 potential.
I don't know if there's a coach out there who could fully realize that physical potential by greatly improving the cerebral side of the position. Jim Harbaugh couldn't do it at Michigan, and Milton didn't thrive in Heupel's QB-friendly offense at Tennessee.
If there is someone out there who could fix his issues, the payoff would be gigantic. Again, I don't think such a person exists, unfortunately.
Ultimately, the Cowboys acquired Milton for close to nothing and even though he's a longshot to become a staple NFL quarterback, he has special traits with humongous upside. The challenge will be cashing in on it.
The good news is with the team's intentions of him backing up Dak Prescott, the Cowboys will have no urgency for his development.
