Jaxson Dart continues to be one of the most polarizing prospects in the entire 2025 NFL Draft class. Following his unbelievably strong finish to the 2024 college football season and his Senior Bowl showing Dart began to rise in mock draft data, asserting himself as the clear QB3 in the class.

However, some NFL Draft experts are still resisting the hype. And perhaps more importantly, some of the major voices in the NFL Draft community continue to fail to put him inside the first round or Top 32 of their mocks and big boards. So that begs a question. Is it already too late for Jaxson Dart to rise into the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?

Jaxson Dart, potential first round NFL Draft pick?

Some NFL Draft experts obviously think it's already somehow too late for Jaxson Dart. However, the good news for Ole Miss Rebels fans and Dart himself is that based on recent history those experts might be completely wrong.

Kyle Crabbs and Joe Marino of the Locked On NFL Scouting show both expressed their questions and doubts this week when it came to the potential Jaxson Dart first round hype as they discussed the latest mock draft from top NFL Draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah. Marino began by discussing the Jaxson Dart momentum following the Senior Bowl, and how he believes seeing a late riser like this is quite unique. 

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"Jaxson Dart, the quarterback from Ole Miss. There's been a lot of hype there. Whether it's going into the Senior Bowl, from the Senior. Quarterback need is there. Nothing's changed. (Multiple NFL) teams still need quarterbacks. Is this at the point now where if he started to get mocked in the first round–he's had chances to make it [and still isn't consensus]. A late riser at quarterback like that is kind of unique."

It's funny how quickly many forget what happens every NFL Draft season after the actual results have come and gone. The truth is that there are "late risers" in just about every single NFL Draft cycle at the quarterback position. Last year it was the trio of J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr., and Bo Nix. The year before it was Hendon Hooker, although he ended up going 68th overall. Before that it was Mac Jones, Jordan Love, and Jalen Hurts.

There are late risers at quarterback in every class. Some are hits. Others are misses. Sometimes the late risers actually see first round capital. Other times they land somewhere in round two or three. But this is clearly not some unique phenomenon.

Still, Marino and Crabbs both seemed skeptical as to Jaxson Dart's chances to rise into the first round (despite it still being February). Crabbs expressed his doubts shortly after Marino broached the subject:

"I feel like if he was going to rise into [first round] stratosphere it would have happened already. It felt like we got out of the [Senior Bowl] and you could tell that [Jaxson Dart's] agency was working overtime with the insiders. Where the guys who aren't NFL Draft analysts, but the guys that are breaking news, were talking about how great of a week Jaxson Dart had. I don't think that's a coincidence. And then the actual prognosticators [like Daniel Jeremiah] are stepping up to the podium saying, "Here's my Top 32 picks", and guess who's not in it?"

While it's true that many top NFL Draft experts like Daniel Jeremiah (among others) have yet to place Jaxson Dart firmly in the first round mix, there's still plenty of time for true consensus to shift and emerge as the 2025 NFL Draft approaches.

Last year, both Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. looked less than spectacular at the Senior Bowl which led to both of their draft stocks to drift, hanging around in the 30s-range for most of February and March. Just check out where they were going as late as mid-March last year according to average draft position data in 2024 (Source: NFL Mock Draft Database):

Of course both Penix and Nix ended up finding themselves selected early in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. And both showed flashes of potential that suggested they're likely going to be long-term NFL starters.

It is not too late for the same to happen with Jaxson Dart. Any kind of confident assertion to the contrary is actively ignoring years of recent precedent. And frankly, to suggest that the QB3 in most any NFL Draft class doesn't have a chance to be selected inside round one is more controversial than not. Why? Only one draft since 2016 saw less than three quarterbacks selected inside the first round.

With only Cam Ward (Miami) and Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) considered ahead of Dart via the most recent consensus mock draft data, there's still plenty of time for him to climb inside round one. As of this writing Dart is projected to go somewhere in round two, but with a strong NFL Combine, his Pro Day, and plenty of team interviews and visits ahead Dart might just end up as a first round pick.

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We'll be back with more Ole Miss Rebels coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!

And if you want to see why many believe Jaxson Dart is one of the best quarterbacks in the 2025 NFL Draft class just check out his 2024 Ole Miss highlights in the video below!

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